ESSAYS ON MANKIND 
AND POLITICAL ARITHMETia 



ESSAYS ON 

MANKIND AND POLITICAL 

ARITHMETIC 



BY 

SIR WILLIAM PETTY 



NEW YORK 
THE MERSHON COMPANY 

PUBLISHERS 

9 



2H- : 



INTEODUCTION. 



William Petty, born on the 26th of May, 1623, 
was the son of a clothier at Ilomsej in Hampshire. 
After education at the Eomsey Grammar School, 
he continued his studies at Caen in Normandy. 
There he supported himself by a little trade while 
learning French, and advancing his knowledge of 
Greek, Latin, Mathematics, and much else that 
belonged to his idea of a liberal education. His 
idea was large. He came back to England, and 
had for a short time a place in the Navy ; but at 
the age of twenty he went abroad again, and was 
away three years, studying actively at Utrecht, 
Leyden, and Amsterdam, and also in Paris. In 
Paris he assisted Thomas Hobbes in drawing dia- 
grams for his treatise on optics. At the age of 
twenty-four Petty took out a patent for the inven- 
tion of a copying machine. It was described in a 
folio pamphlet " On Double Writing." That was 
in 1647, in Civil War time, and although Petty 
followed Hobbes in his studies, he did not share 



6 INTRODUCTION. 

the philosopher's political opinions, but held with 
the Parliament. In 1648 he added to his former 
pamphlet a "Declaration concerning the newly 
invented Art of Double Writing." 

Samuel Hartlib, the large-hearted Pole, who in 
those days spent his worldly means in England for 
the advancement of agriculture and of education, 
and other aids to the well-being of a nation, had 
caused Milton to write his letter on education, as 
has been shown in the Introduction to the hundred 
and twenty-first volume of this Library, which con- 
tains that Letter together with Milton's Ar€opa- 
gitica. Young Petty 's first published writing was 
a Letter to Hartlib on Education, entitled "The 
Advice of W. P. to Mr. Samuel Hartlib for the 
Advancement of some Particular Parts of Learning." 
This appeared in 1648, when Potty's age was 
twenty-five, and its aim was to suggest a wider 
view of the whole field of education than had been 
possible in the Middle Ages, of which schools and 
colleges were then preserving the traditions, as 
they do still here and there to some extent. 
This pamphlet has been reprinted in the sixth 
volume of the ** Harleian Miscellany." William 
Petty wished the training of the young to be in 
several respects more practical 



INTEODUCTION. 7 

His own activity of mind caused him to settle 
at Oxford, where he taught anatomy and chemistry, 
which he had been studying abroad. He had read 
with Hobbes the writings of Vesalius, the great 
founder of modem practical anatomy. In 1649 
William Petty graduated at Oxford as Doctor of 
Medicine, obtained a fellowship at Brasenose, and 
practised. In 1650 he surprised the public by re» 
storing the action of the lungs in a woman whcv 
had been hanged for infanticide, and so restoring, 
her to life. 

Dr. Petty now took his place at Oxford among- 
the energetic men of science who had been inspired} 
by the teaching of Francis Bacon to seek know- 
ledge by direct experiment, and to value knowledge- 
above all things for its power of advancing the- 
welfare of man. The headquarters of these workers, 
were at Oxford, and in London at Gresham. 
College. 

In 1660 Petty was made Professor of Anatomy 
at Oxford, and it is a characteristic illustration of 
his great activity of mind that he was at the same 
time Professor of Music at Gresham College, 
Music had then a high place in the Seven Sciences, 
as that use of regulated numbers which expressed 
th^ harmonies of the created world. The Seven 



8 INTRODTJCTION. 

Sciences were divided into three of the Trivium, 
and four of the Quadrivium. The three of the 
Trivium concerned the use of speech ; they were 
Grammar^ Rhetoric, and Logic. The four of the 
Quadrivium concerned number and measure ; they 
■were Arithmetic, Geometry, Music; and Astronomy, 
which led up straight to God. Advance to Music 
might be represented in the student's mind by his 
reaching to a sense of the harmonious relation of 
all his studies, which, so to speak, lived in his 
mind as a single well-proportioned thought. 

In 1652 Dr. Petty was sent to Ireland as 
physician to the army of the Commonwealth. 
While there his active mind observed that the 
Survey on which the Government had based its 
distribution of fortified lands to the "soldiers had 
been "most inefficiently and absurdly managed." 
He obtained the commission to make a fresh 
Survey, which he completed accurately in thirteen 
months, and by which he obtained in payments 
from the Government and from other persons in- 
terested ten thousand pounds. By investing this 
in the purchase of soldiers' claims, he secured for 
himself an Irish estate of fifty thousand acres in 
the county of Kerry, opened upon it nines and 
quarries, developed trade in timber, and set up a 



INTRODUCTION. 9 

iisliery. John Evelyn said of him " that he had 
never known such another genius, and that if 
Evelyn were a prince he would make Petty his 
second councillor at least." Henry Cromwell as 
Lord Deputy in Ireland made Petty his secre- 
tary. 

Potty's Maps were printed in 1685, two years 
before his death, as " Hibernise Delineatio quoad 
hactenus licuit perfectissima ; " a collection of 
thirty-six maps, with a portrait of Sir William 
Petty, a work answering to its description »e the 
most perfect delineation of Ireland that had up to 
that time been obtained. There is a coloured copy 
of Petty's maps in the British Museum, and also 
an uncoloured copy, with the first five maps 
varying from those in the coloured copy, and 
giving a General Map of Ireland, followed by 
Maps of Leinster, Munster, Ulster, and Connaught. 
There was afterwards published in duodecimo, 
without date, " A Geographical Description of y^ 
Kingdom of Ireland, collected from y^ actual 
Survey made by Sir William Petty, corrected and 
amended, engraven and published by Era. Lamb." 
This volume gives as its contents, " one general 
mapp, four provincial mapps, and thirty -two 
county mapps ; to which is" added a mapp of Great 



10 INTEODTJCTION. 

Brittaine and Ireland, together with an Index of 

the whole." 

At the Restoration William Petty accepted the 
inevitable change, and continued his service to the 
country. He was knighted by Charles the Second,, 
and appointed in 1661 Inspector-General ot Ireland. 
He entered Parliament, He was one of the first 
founders of the Royal Society, established at the 
beginning of the reign of Charles the Second ; and 
the outcome of these scientific studies along the 
line marked out by Francis Bacon, which had 
been actively pursued in Oxford and at Greshara 
CoUege. In 1663 he applied his ingenuity to the 
invention of a swift double-bottomed ship, that 
made one or two passages between England and 
Ireland, but was then lost in a storm. 

In 1670 Sir William Petty established on his 
lands at Kerry the English settlement at the head 
of the bay of Kenmare. The building of forty- 
two houses for the English settlers first laid the 
foundations of the present town of Kenmare. " The 
population," writes Lord Macaulay, '* amounted to 
a hundred and eighty. The land round the town 
was well cultivated. The cattle were numerous. 
Two small barks were employed in fishing and 
trading along the coast. The supply of herrings, 



INTRODTJCTION. 11 

pilchards, mackerel, and salmon, was plentiful, and 
•would have been still more plentiful had not the 
beach been, in the finest part of the year, covered by 
multitudes of seals, which preyed on the fish of the 
bay. Yet the seal was not an unwelcome visitor : 
his fur was valuable; and his oil supplied light 
through the long nights of winter. An attempt 
was made with great success to set up ironworks. 
It was not yet the practice to employ coal for the 
purpose of smelting ; and the manufacturers of 
Kent and Sussex had much difliculty in procuring 
timber at a reasonable price. The neighbourhood 
of Kenmare was then richly wooded ; and Petty 
found it a gainful speculation to send ore thither." 
He looked also for profit from the variegated 
marbles of adjacent islands. Distant two days' 
journey over the mountains from the nearest 
English, Petty's English settlement of Kenmare 
withstood all surrounding dangers, and in 1688, a 
year after its founder's death, defended itself suc- 
cessfully against a fierce and genei-al attack. 

Sir William Petty died at London, on the 16th 
of December, 1687, and was buried in his native 
town of Pomsey. He had added to his great 
wealth by marriage, and was the founder of the 
family in which another Sir William Petty 



12 INTRODTTCTION. 

became Earl of Shelbume and first Marquis of 
Lansdowne. The son of that first Marquis was 
Henry third Marquis of Lansdowne, who took a 
conspicuous part in our political history during 
the present century. 

Sir William Petty's survey of the land in Ire- 
land, called the Down Survey, because its details 
were set down in maps, remains the legal record 
of the title on which half the land in Ireland is 
held. The original maps are preserved in the 
Public Record Office at Dublin, and many of 
Petty's MSS. are in the Bodleian Library at 
Oxford. 

He published in 1662 and 1685 a "Treatise 
of Taxes and Contributions, the same being fre- 
quently to the present state and affairs of 
Ireland," of which his view started from the 
general opinion that men should contribute to 
the public charge according to their interest in 
the public peace — that is, according to their 
riches.' " Now, he said, " there are two sorts of 
riches — one actual, and the other potential. A 
man is actually and truly rich according to what 
he eateth, drinketh, weareth, or in any other way 
really and actually enjoyeth. Others are but poten- 
tially and imaginatively rich, who though the^ have 



INTRODUCTJON. 13 

power over much, make little use of it, these 
being rather stewards and exchangers for the other 
sort than owners for themselves." He then showed 
how he considered that " every man ought to con- 
tribute according to what he taketh to himself, and 
actually enjoyeth." 

In 1674 Sir William Petty published a paper 
on "Duplicate Proportion," and in 1679 he pub- 
lished in Latin a *' Colloquy of David with his Own 
Soul." In 1682 he published a tract called 
*' Quantulumcunque, concerning Money ; " and 
"England's Guide to Industry," in 1686. From 
1682 to 1687, the year of his death. Sir William 
Petty was drawing great attention to the " Essays 
on Political Arithmetic," which are here reprinted. 
There was the little " Essay in Political Arithmetic, 
concerning the People, Housings, Hospitals of 
London and Paris;" published in 1682, again in 
French in 1686, and again in English in 1687. 
There was the little " Essay concerning the Multi- 
plication of Mankind, together with an Essay on 
the Growth of London," published in 1682, and 
again in 1683 and 1686. There was in 1683, 
" Another Essay in Political Arithmetic concern- 
ing the growth of the City of London." There 
were " Farther Considerations on the Dublin Bills 



14 INTRODTTCTION. 

of Mortality," in 1686; and "Five Essays on 
Political Arithmetic" (in French and English), 
" Observations upon the Cities of London and 
Rome," in 1687, the last year of Sir William 
Petty's life. Other writings of his were published 
in his lifetime, or have been published since his 
death. He was in the study of political economy 
one of the most ingenious and practical thinkers 
before the days of Adam Smith. 

But the interest of those " Essays in Political 
Arithmetic " lies chiefly in the facts presented by 
so trustworthy an authority. London had become 
in the time of the Stuarts the most populous city in 
Europe, if not in the world. This Sir William 
Petty sought to prove against the doubts of foreign 
and other critics, and his " Political Arithmetic " 
was an endeavour to determine the relative strength 
in population of the chief cities of England, France, ' 
and Holland. His application of arithmetic in 
the first of these essays to a census of the popula- 
tion at the Day of Judgment he himself spoke of 
slightingly. It is a curious example of a bygone 
form of theological discussion. But his tables and 
his reasonings upon them grow in interest as he 
attempts his numbering of the people in the reign 
of James II. by collecting facts upon which his 



INTRODXrCTION. 15 

•deductions might be founded. The references to the 
deaths by Plague in London before the cleansing 
of the town by the great fire of 1666 are very sug- 
gestive ; and in one passage there is incidental 
note of delay in the coming of the Plague tlien 
due, without reckoning the change made iu con- 
ditions of health by the rebuilding. Nobody knew, 
and no one even now can calculate, how many 
lives the Fire of London saved. 

There was in Petty's time no direct numbering 
of the people. The first census in this country was 
not until more than a hundred years after Sir 
William Petty's death, although he points out in 
these essays how easily it could be established, and 
what useful information it would give. There 
was a census taken at Rome 566 years before 
Christ. But the first census in Great Britain was 
taken in 1801, under provision of an Act passed 
on the "last day of the year 1800, to secure a 
numbering of the population every ten years. 
Ireland was not included in the return ; the first 
census in Ireland was not until the year 1813. 

Sir William Petty had to base his calculations 
partly upon the Bills of Mortality, which had 
been imperfectly begun under Elizabeth, but fell 
into disuse, and were revived, as a weekly record 



16 INTRODUCTION. 

of the number of deaths, beginning on the 29tb 
of October, 1 603 ; notices of diseases first appeared 
in them in 1629. The weekly bills were published 
every Thursday, and any householder could have 
them supplied to him for four shillings a year. 
These essays will show how inferences as to the 
number of the living were drawn from the number 
of the dead. And even now our Political Arith- 
metic depends too much upon rough calculations 
made fi'ora the death register. It is seven years 
since the last census ; we have lost count of the 
changes in our population to a very great extent, 
and have to wait three years before our reckoning 
can be made sure. The interval should be reduced 
to five years. 

Another of Sir William Petty's helps in the 
arithmetic of population was the Chimney Tax, a 
revival of the old fumage or hearth-money — smoke 
farthings, as the people called them — once paid, 
according to Domesday Book, for every chimney 
in a house. Charles the Second had set up a 
chimney tax in the year 1662 ; the statistics of the 
collection were at the service of Sir William Petty. 
The tax outlived him but two years. It was promptly 
abolished in the first year of William and Mary. 

The interest taken at home and abroad in these 



INTBODUCTION. 17 

calculations of Political Arithmetic set other men 
calculating, and reasoning upon their calculations. 
The next worker in that direction was Gregory 
King, Lancaster Herald, whose calculations imme- 
diately followed those of Sir William Petty. Sir 
William Petty's essays extended from 1682 until 
his death in 1687. Gregory King's estimates were 
made in 1689. They were a study of the number 
of population and distribution of wealth among us 
at the time of the English Revolution, and the 
unpublished results were first printed in a chapter 
on " The People of England," which formed jjart 
of a volume published in 1699 as "An Essay upon 
the Probable Methods of making a People Gainfers 
in the Balance of Trade, by the Author of the 
Essay on Ways and Means." The volume was 
written by a member of Parliament in the days 
of William and Mary, who desired to apply prin- 
ciples of political economy to the maintenance of 
English wealth and liberty. It has been wrongly 
ascribed to Defoe ; and its suggestion of the plan 
of a trading Corporation for solution of the whole 
problem of relief to the poor who cannot work, and 
relief from the poor who can, might indeed make 
another chapter in Defoe's "Essay on Projects." 
The chapter, which gives the Political Arithmetic 



18 INTEODTTCTION. 

of Gregory King, with such comment and sug- 
gestions as might be expected from a liberal 
supporter of the Revolution, and with this 
suggestion of a Corporation, is in itself a complete 
essay. It follows naturally upon the Political 
Arithmetic of Sir William Petty in close sequence 
of time, and in carrying a like method of inquiry 
forward until it reaches a few more conclusions. I 
have, therefore, added it to this volume. It 
seems, at any rate, to show how Sir William 
Petty's books, of which the very small size grieved 
the stationer, had a large influence on other minds ; 
his figures bearing fruit in a new search for facts 
and careful reasoning on the condition of the 
country at one of the most critical times in English 
history. 

n. M. 



THE STATIONER TO THE EEADER. 

The ensuing essay concerning the growth of the 
city of London was entitled "Another Essay," 
intimating that some other essay had preceded it, 
which was not to be found. I having been much 
importuned for that precedent essay, have found 
that the same was about the growth, increase, and 
multiplication of mankind, which subject should in 
order of nature precede that of the growth of the 
city of London, but am not able to procure the 
essay itself, only I have obtained from a gentleman, 
who sometimes corresponded with Sir W. Petty, an 
extract of a letter from Sir William to him, which 
I verily believe containeth the scope thereof; 
wherefore, I must desire the reader to be content 
therewith, till more can be had. 



The extract of a letter concemmg the scope of an 
essay intended to precede another essay concerning 
the growth of the City of London, dec. An Essay 
in Political Arithmeticy concerning the valv>e and 
increase of People and Colonies. 

The scope of this essay is concerning people and 
colonies, and to make way for " Another Essay " 
concerning the growth of the city of London. I 
desire in this first essay to give the world some 
light concerning the numbers of people in England, 
with Wales, and in Ireland ; as also of the number 
of houses and families wherein they live, and of 
acres they occupy. 

2. How many live upon their lands, how many 
upon their personal estates and commerce, and how 
many upon art, and labour ; how many upon alms, 
how many upon offices and public employments, 
and how many as cheats and thieves ; how many 
are impotents, children, and decrepit old men. 

3. How many upon the poll-taxes in England, 
do pay extraordinary rates, and how many at the 
level 



22 EXTRACT OF A LETTER. 

4. How many men and women are prolific, and 
how many of each are married or unmarried. 

6. Wliat the value of people are in England, and 
what in Ireland at a medium, both as members of 
the Church or Commonwealth, or as slaves and 
servants to one another ; with a method how to 
estimate the same, in any other country or colony. 

6. How to compute the value of land in colonies, 
in comparison to England and Ireland. 

7. How 10,000 people in a colony may be 
planted to the best advantage. 

8. A conjecture in what number of years Eng- 
land and Ireland may be fully peopled, as also all 
America, and lastly the whole habitable earth. 

9. What spot of the earth's globe were fittest for 
a general and universal emporium, whereby all the 
people thereof may best enjoy one another's labours 
and commodities. 

10. Whether the speedy peopling of the earth 
would make 

(1) For the good of mankind. 

(2) To fulfil the revealed will of God. 

(3) To what prince or State the same would 

be most advantageous. 

11. An exhortation to all thinking men to solve 
the Scriptures and other good histories, concerning 



EXTEACT OF A LETTER. 23 

the number of people in all ages of the world, in 
the great cities thereof, and elsewhere. 

12. An appendix concerning the difierent 
number of sea-fish and wild-fowl at the end of 
every thousand years since Noah's Flood. 

13. An hypothesis of the use of those spaces (of 
about 8,000 miles through) within the globe of oar 
earth, supposing a shell of 150 miles thick. 

14. What may be the meaning of glorified 
bodies, in case the place of the blessed shall be 
without the convex of the orb of the fixed stars, if 
that the whole system of the world was made for 
the use of our earth's men. 



THE PRINCIPAL POINTS OF THIS 
DISCOURSE. 



1. That London doubles in forty years, and all 
^ England in three hundred and sixty years. 

2. That there be, A-D. 1682, about 670,000 
souls in London, and about 7,400,000 in all Eng- 
land and Wales, and about 28,000,000 of acres of 
profitable land. 

3. That the periods of doubling the people are 
found to be, in all degrees, from between ten to 
twelve hundred years. 

4. That the growth of London must stop of itself 
before the year 1800. 

5. A table helping to understand the Scriptures, 
concerning the number of people mentioned in 
them. 

6. That the world will be fully peopled within 
the next two thousand years. 

7. Twelve ways whereby to try any proposal 
pretended for the public good. 



28 PRINCIPAL POINTS OP THIS DISCOURSE. 

8. How the city of London may be made 
(morally speaking) invincible. 

9. A help to uniformity in religion. 

10. That it is possible to increase mankind by 
generation four times more than at present. 

11. The plagues of London is the chief impedi- 
ment and objection against the growth of the city. 

12. That an exact account of the people 19 
necessary in this matter. 



or THE GROWTH OF THE CITY 
or LONDON: 

And of the Measures^ Periods ^ Causes, and Con- 
sequences thereof. 

By the city of London we mean the housing 
within the walls of the old city, with the liberties 
thereof, Westminster, the Borough of Southwark, 
and so much of the built ground in Middlesex 
and Surrey, whose houses are contiguous unto, or 
within call of those aforementioned. Or else we mean 
the housing which stand upon the ninety-seven 
parishes within the walls of London; upon the 
sixteen parishes next without them ; the six 
parishes of "Westminster, and the fourteen out- 
parishes in Middlesex and Surrey, contiguous to 
the former, all which, 133 parishes, are compre- 
hended within the weekly bills of mortality. 

The growth of this city is measured. (1) By 
the quantity of ground, or number of acres upon 
which it stands. (2) By the number of houses, as 



28 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. . 

the same appears by the hearth-books and late 
maps. (3) By the cubical content of the said 
housing. (4) By the flooring of the same. 
(5) By the number of days' work, or charge of 
building the said houses. (6) By the value of the 
said houses, according to their yearly rent, and 
number of years' purchase. (7) By the number of 
inhabitants ; according to which latter sense only 
we make our computations in this essay. 

Till a better uule can be obtained, we conceive 
that the proportion of the people may be sufficiently 
measured by the proportion of the burials in such 
years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary 
healthfulness or sickliness. 

That the city hath increased in this latter sense 
appears from the bills of mortality represented in 
the two following tables, viz., one whereof is a 
continuation for eighteen years, ending 1682, of 
that table which was published in the 117th page 
of the book of the observations upon the London 
bills of mortality, printed in the year 1676 The 
other showeth what number of people died at a 
medium of two years, indifferently taken, at about 
twenty years' distance from each other. 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 



29 



The First of the said Two Tables. 





97 


16 


Out- 


Buried 


Besides 
of the 


Christ- 


A.D. 


Parishes. 


Parishes. 


Parishes. 


in till. 


Plague. 


ened. 


1665 


6,320 


12,463 


10,925 


28,708 


68,596 


9,967 


1666 


1,689 


3,969 


5,082 


10,740 


1,998 


8,997 


1667 


761 


6,405 


8,641 


15,807 


35 


10,938 


1668 


796 


6,865 


9,603 


17,267 


14 


11,633 


1669 


1,323 


7,500 


10.440 


19.263 


3 


12,335 


1670 


1,890 


7,808 


10,500 


20,198 




11,997 


1671 


1,723 


5,938 1 8.063 


15,724 


6 


12,510 


1672 


2,237 


6,788 


9,200 


18,225 


5 


12,593 


1673 


2,307 


6,302 


8,890 


17,499 


5 


11,895 


1674 


2,801 


7,522 


10,875 


21,198 


3 


11,851 


1675 


2,555 


5,986 


8,702 


17,243 


1 


11,775 


1676 


2,756 


6,508 


9,466 


18.730 


2 


12,399 


1677 


2,817 


6,632 


9,616 


19,065 


2 


12,626 


1678 


3,060 


6,705 


10,908 


20,673 


5 


12,601 


1679 


3,074 


7,481 


11,173 


21,728 


2 


12,288 


1680 


3,076 


7,066 


10,911 


21,053 




12,747 


1681 


3,669 


8,136 


12,166 


23,971 




13,355 


1682 


2,975 


7,009 


10,707 


20,691 




12,653 



According to which latter table there died as 

follows : — 

The Latter of the said Two Tables. 

There died in London at the medium between the years — ( 

1604 and 1605 6,135. A. 

1621 and 1622 8,527. B. 

1641 and 1642 11,883. 0. 

1661 and 1662 15,148. D. 

1681 and 1682 .^ 22,331. E. 



"Wherein observe, that the number is double 
to A and 806 over. That D is double to 



30 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

B within 1,906. That C and D is double to A 
and B wi«hin 293. That E is double to C within 
1,435. That D and E is double to B and C within 
3,341 ; and that and D and E are double to A 
and B and C within 1,736 ; and that E is above 
quadruple to A. All which differences (every way 
considered) do allow the doubling of the people of 
London in 40 years to be a sufficient estimate 
thereof in round numbers, and without the trouble 
of fractions. We also say that 669,930 is near 
the number of people now in London, because the 
burials are 22,331, which, multiplied by 30 (one 
dying yearly out of 30, as appears in the 94th 
page of the aforementioned observations), maketh 
the said number; and because there are 84,000 
tenanted houses (as we are credibly informed), 
which, at 8 in each, makes 672,000 souls ; the 
said two accounts differing inconsiderably from 
each other. 

We have thus pretty well found out in what 
number of years (viz., in about 40) that the city of 
London hath doubled, and the present number of 
inhabitants to be about 670,000. We must now 
also endeavour the same for the whole territory of 
England and Wales. In order whereunto, we first 
say that the ass'^ssment of London is about an 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 31 

eleventh part of the whole territory, and, therefore, 
that the people of the whole may well be eleven 
times that of London, viz., about 7,369,000 souls ; 
with which account that of the poll-money, hearth- 
money, and the bishop's late numbering of the 
communicants, do pretty well agree ; wherefore, 
although the said number of 7,369,000 be not (as 
it cannot be) a demonstrated truth, yet it will 
serve for a good supposition, which is as much as 
we want at present. 

As for the time in which the people double, it is 
vet more hard to be found. For we have ffood ex- 
perience (in the said page 94 of the afore-mentioned 
observations) that in the country but 1 of 50 die 
per annum ; and by other late accounts, that there 
have been sometimes but 24 births for 23 burials. 
The which two points, if they were universally and 
constantly true, there would be colour enough to 
say that the people doubled but in about 1,200 
years. As, for example, suppose there be 600 
people, of which let a fiftieth part die per annum, 
then there shall die 12 per annum; and if the 
births be as 24 to 23, then the increase of the 
people shall be somewhat above half a man per 
annum, and consequently the supposed number of 
600 cannot be doubled but in 1,126 years, which, 



32 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

to Beckon in round numbers, and for that the afor^ 
mentioned fractions were not exact, we had rather 
call 1,200. 

There are also other good observations, that 
even in the country one in about 30 or 32 per 
annum hath died, and that there have been five 
births for four burials. Now, according to this 
doctrine, 20 will die per annum out of the above 
600, and 25 will be born, so as the increase will be 
five, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the 
said 600. So as we have two fair computations, 
differing from each other as one to ten ; and there 
are also several other good observations for other 
measures. 

I might here insert, that although the births in 
this last computation be 25 of 600, or a twenty- 
fourth part of the people, yet that in natural 
possibility they may be near thrice as many, and 
near 75. For that by some late observations, the 
teeming females between 15 and 44 are about 180 
of the said 600, and the males of between 18 and 
59 are about 180 also, and that every teeming 
woman can bear a child once in two years ; from 
all which it is plain that the births may be 90 
(and ab;Lting 15 for sickness, young abortion.s, and 
natural barrenness), there may remain 75 births, 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. OO 

which is an eighth of the people, which by some 
observations we have found to be but a two-and- 
thirtieth part, or but a quarter of what is thus 
shown to be naturally possible. Now, according 
to this reckoning, if the births may be 75 of 600, 
and the burials but 15, then the annual increase 
of the people will be 60 ; and so the said 600 
people may double in ten years, which differs yet 
more from 1,200 above-mentioned. Now, to get 
out of this difficulty, and to temper those vast dis- 
agreements, I took the medium of 50 and, 30 dying 
per annum, and pitched upon 40 ; and I also took 
the medium between 24 births and 23 burials, and 
5 births for 4 burials, viz., allowing about 10 
births for 9 burials ; upon which supposition 
there must die 15 per annum out of the above- 
mentioned 600, and the births must be 16 and 
two- thirds, and the increase one and two- thirds, or 
five-thirds of a man, which number, compared with 
1,800 thirds, or 600 men, gives 360 years for the 
time of doubling (including some nJlowance for 
wars, plagues, and famines, the effects thereof), 
though they be terrible at the times and ))lMces 
where they happen, yet in a period of 360 years is 
no great matter in the whole nation. For the 
plagues of England in twenty years have carried 



34 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

away scarce an eightieth part of the people of the 
whole nation ; and the late ten years' civil wars 
(the like whereof hath not 'been in several ages 
before) did not take away above a fortieth part of 
the whole people. 

According to which account or measure of 
doubling, if there be now in England and Wales 
7,400,000 people, there were about 5,526,000 in 
the beginning of Queen Elizabeth's reign, A.D. 
1560, and about 2,000,000 at the Norman Con- 
<piest, of which consult the Doomsday Book, and 
my Lord Hale's " Origination of Mankind." 

Memorandum. — That if the people double in 
360 years, that the present 320,000,000 computed 
by some learned men (from the measures of all the 
nations of the world, their degrees of being peopled, 
and good accounts of the people in several of tbem) 
to be now upon the face of the earth, will within 
the next 2,000 years so increase as to give one 
head for every two acres of land in the habitable 
part of the. earth. And then, according to the 
prediction of the Scriptures, there must be wars, 
and great slaughter, &c. 

Wherefore, as an expedient against the above- 
mentioned difference between 10 and 1,200 years, 
we do for the present, and in this country, admit 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 35 

of 360 years to be the time wherein the people of 
England do double, according to the present laws 
and practice of marriages. 

Now, if the city double its people in 40 years, 
and the present number be 670,000, and if the 
whole territory be 7,400,000, and double in 360 
years, as aforesaid, then by the underwritten table 
it appears that A.D. 1840 the people of the city 
will be 10,718,880, and those of the whole country 
but 10,917,389, which is but inconsiderably more. 
"Wherefore it is certain and necessary that the 
growth of the city must stop before the said year 
1840, and will be at its utmost height in the next 
preceding period, A.D. 1800, when the number 
of the city will be eight times its present number, 
viz., 5,359,000. And when (besides the said 
number) there will be 4,466,000 to perform the 
tillage, pasturage, and other rural works necessary 
to be done without the said city, as by the following 
table, viz. : — 

A.D. Buriala. People in People in 

A.U, ijuiittia. London. England. 

1565.„.^.^ 2,568 77,040 6,626,929 

Asinthel 1605 6,135 

former )■ 1642....^.^ 11,883 

table. ) 1682 22,331 669,930 7,369,230 

1722 44,662 

1762 89,324 

1802 178,648 6,359,440 9,825,650 

1842....«... 357,296 10,718,889 10,917,389 



36 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

Kow, wlien the people of London shall come to 
be so near the people of all England, then it 
follows that the growth of London must stop 
before the said year 1842, as aforesaid, and must 
be at its greatest height A.D. 1800, when it will 
be eight times more than now, with above 4,000,000 
for the service of the country and ports, as afore- 
said. 

Of the afore-mentioned vast difference between 
10 years and 1,200 years for doubling the people, 
we make this use, viz. : — To justify the Scriptures 
and all other good histories concerning the number 
of the people in ancient time. For supposing the 
eight persons who came out of the Ark, increased 
by a progressive doubling in every ten years, might 
grow in the first 100 years after the Flood from 8 
to 8,000, and that in 350 years after the Flood 
(whenabouts Noah died) to 1,000,000 and by this 
time, 1682, to 320,000,000 (which by rational con- 
jecture are thought to be now in the world), it will 
not be hard to compute how, in the intermediate 
years, the growths may be made, according to what 
is set down in the following table, wherein making 
the doubling to be ten years at first, and within 
1,200 years at last, we take a discretionary liberty, 
but justifiable by observations and the Scripturea 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 37 

for the rest, which table we leave to be corrected 
by historians who know the bigness of ancient 
cities, armies, and colonies in the respective ages of 
the world, in the meantime affirming that without 
such difference in the measures and periods for 
doubling (the extremes whereof we have demon- 
strated to be real and true) it is impossible to solve 
what is written in the Holy Scriptures and other 
authentic books. For if we pitch upon any one 
number throughout for this purpose, 150 years is 
the fittest of all round numbers ; according to 
which there would have been but 512 souls in the 
whole world in Moses' time (being 800 years after 
the Flood), when 603,000 Israelites of above 
twenty years old (besides those of other ages, tribes, 
and nations) were found upon an exact survey ap- 
pointed by God, whereas our table makes 12,000,000. 
And there would have been about 8,000 in David's 
time, when were found 1,100,000, of above twenty 
years old (besides others, as aforesaid) in Israel, upon 
the survey instigated by "Satan, whereas our table 
makes 32,000,000. And there would have been 
but a quarter of a million about the birth of Christ, 
or Augustus's time, when Rome and the Roman 
Empire were so great, whereas our table makes 
100,000,000. Where note, that the Israelites ia 



38 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

about 500 years, between their coming out of Egypt to 
David's reign, increased from 603,000 to 1,100,000. 

On tbe other hand, if we pitch upon a less 
number, as 100 years, the world would have been 
over-peopled 700 years since. Wherefore no one 
number will solve the phenomena, and therefore 
we have supposed several, in order to make the fol- 
lowing table, which we again desire historians to 
correct, according to what they find in antiquity 
concerning the number of the people in each age 
and country of the world. 

^Ve did (not long since) assist a worthy divine, 
writing against some sceptics, who would have 
baffled our belief of the resurrection, by saying, that 
the whole globe of the earth could not furnish 
matter enough for all the bodies that must rise at 
the last day, much less would the surface of the 
earth furnish footing for so vast a number; whereas 
we did (by the method afore mentioned) assert the 
number of men now living, and also of those that 
had died since the beginning of the world, and did 
withal show, that half the island of Ireland would 
afford them all, not only footing to stand upon, but 
graves to lie down in, for that whole number ; and 
that two mountains in that country were as weighty 
as all the bodies that had ever been from the b& 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 



39 



ginning of the world to the year 1680, when this 
dispute happened. For which purpose I have 
digressed from my intended purpose to insert this 
matter, intending to prosecute this hint further 
upon some more proper occasion. 



A Table showing how the People might have Dovbleb 

IN THE SEVERAL AgES OP THE WoKLD. 



A.D. after the Flood. 



Periods of 
doubling 



In 10 years 



In 20 years 



40 

50 

60 

70 

100 

190 

290 

400 

650 

750 

1,000 



n 

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

I 80 

I 90 

1^100 

120 years after 
the Flood. 

140 

170 



200 , 
240 , 
290 , 
350 
420 
520 , 
710 , 
1,000 
1,400, 
1,950, 
2,700 
3,700 



8 persons. 

16 

32 

64 

128 

256 

512 

1,024 

2,048 

4,096 

8,000 and more. 

16,000 
32,000 
64,000 

128,000 

256,000 

512,000 

1,000,000 and more. 

2,000,000 

4,000,000 

8,000,000 

16,000,000 in Moses' time. 

32,000,000 about David'gtime. 

64,000,000 [Christ. 

128,000,000 about the birth of 

256,000,000 



40 ESSAYS ON MANKINBk 

300 C 

In ... { 4,000.^ 320,000,000 " 

1,200 ( 

It is here to be noted, that in this table we have 
assigned a different number of years for the time of 
doubling the people in the several ages of the world, 
and might have done the same for the several 
countries of the world, and therefore the said 
several periods assigned to the whole world in the 
lump may well eiK>ugh consist with the 360 years 
especially assigned to England, between this day 
and the Norman Conquest ; and the said 360 years 
may well enough serve for a supposition between 
this time and that of the world's being fully 
peopled ; nor do we lay any stress upon one or the 
other in this disquisition concerning the growth of 
the city of London. 

We have spoken of the growth of London, with 
the measures and periods thei-eof ; we come next to 
the causes and consequences of the same. 

The causes of its growth from 1642 to 1682m ay 
be said to have been as follows, viz.: — From 1642 
to 1650, that men came out of the country to 
London, to shelter themselves from the outrages of 
the Civil Wars during that time ; from 1650 to 
1660, the royal party came to London for theii 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 41 

more- private and inexpensive living ; from 1660 to 
1670, the king's friends and party came to receive 
his favours after his happy restoration ; from 1670 
to 1680, the frequency of plots and parliaments 
might bring extraordinary numbers to the city ; 
but what reasons to assign for the like increase 
from 1604 to 1642 I know not, unless I should 
pick out some remarkable accident happening in 
each part of the said period, and make that to be 
the cause of this increase (as vulgar people make 
the cause of every man's sickness to be what he 
did last eat), wherefore, rather than so to say 
quidlihet de quolihet^ I had rather quit even what 
I have above said to be the cause of London's 
increase from 1642 to 1682, and put the whole 
upon some natural and spontaneous benefits and 
advantages that men find by living in great more 
than in small societies, and shall therefore seek 
for the antecedent causes of this growth in the 
consequences of the like, considered in greater 
characters and proportions. 

Now, whereas in arithmetic, out of two false 
positions the truth is extracted, so I hope out of 
two extravagant contrary suppositions to draw 
forth some solid and consistent conclusion, viz. : — 

The first of the said two suppositions is, that the 



42 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

city of London is seven times bigger than now, 
and that the inhabitants of it are 4,690,000 
people, and that in all the other cities, ports, 
towns, and villages, there are but 2,710,000 
more. 

The other supposition is, that the city of London 
is but a seventh part of its present bigness, and 
that the inhabitants of it are but 96,000, and that 
the rest of the inhabitants (being 7,304,000) do 
cohabit thus : 104,000 of them in small cities and 
towns, and that the rest, being 7,200,000, do in- 
habit in houses not contiguous to one another, viz., 
in 1,200,000 houses, having about twenty-four acres 
of groumd belonging to each of thein, accounting 
about 28,000,000 of acres to be in the whole terri- 
tory of England, Wales, and the adjacent islands, 
which any man that pleases may examine upon a 
good map. 

Now, the question is, in which of these two 
imaginary states would be the most convenient, 
commodious, and comfortable livings'? 

But this general question divides itself into the 
several questions, relating to the following parti- 
culars, viz. : — 

L For the defence of the kingdom against 
foreign powers. 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 43 

2. For preventing the intestine commotions of 
parties and factions. 

3. For peace and uniformity in religion. 

4. For the administration of justice. 

5. For the proportionablj taxing of the people, 
and easy levying the same. 

6. For gain by foreign commerce. 

7. For husbandry, manufacture, and for arts of 
delight and ornament. 

8. For lessening the fatigue of carriages and 
travelling. 

9. For preventing beggars and thieves. 

10. For the advancement and propagation of 
useful learning. 

11. For increasing the people by ^generation. 

12. For preventing the mischiefs of plagues and 
contagions. And withal, which of the said two 
states is most practicable and natural, for in these 
and the like particulars do lie the tests and touch- 
stones of all proposals that can be made for the 
public good. 

First, as to practicable, we say, that although 
our said extravagant proposals are both in nature 
possible, yet it is not obvious to every man to 
conceive how London, now seven times bigger 
than in the beginning of Queen Elizabeth's reign, 



44 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

should be seven times bigger than now it is, and 
forty-nine times bigger than a.d. 1560. To which 
I say, 1. That the present city of London stands upon 
less than 2,500 acres of ground, wherefore a city 
seven times as large may stand upon 10,500 acres, 
which is about equivalent to a circle of four miles 
and a half in diameter, and less than fifteen miles in 
circumference. 2. That a circle of ground of thirty- 
five miles semidiameter will bear corn, garden-stufi", 
fruits, hay, and timber, for the 4,690,000 inhabi- 
tants of the said city and circle, so as nothing of 
that kind need be brought from above thirty-five 
miles distance from the said city ; for the number of 
acres within the said circle, reckoning two acres 
sufficient to furnish bread and drink-corn for every 
head, and two acres will furnish hay for every ne- 
cessary horse ; and that the trees which may grow 
in the hedgerows of the fields within the said cir- 
cle may furnish timber for 600,000 houses. 3. 
That all live cattle and great animals can bring 
themselves to the said city ; and that fish can be 
brought from the Land's End and Berwick as 
easily as now. 4. Of coals there is no doubt : 
and for water, 20s. per family (or X600,000 per 
annum in the whole) will serve this city, especially 
with the help of the Kew River. But if by practic* 



ESSArS ON MANKIND. 45 

able be understood that the present state may be 
suddenly changed into either of the two above- 
mentioned proposals, I think it is not practicable. 
Wherefore the true question is, unto or towards 
which of the said two extravagant states it is best 
to l)end the present state by degrees, viz., Whether 
it be best to lessen or enlarge the present city 1 
In order whereunto, we inquire (as to the first 
question) which state is most defensible against 
foreign powers, saying, that if the above-mentioned 
housing, and a border of ground, of three-quarters 
of a mile broad, were encompassed with a wall and 
ditch of twenty miles about (as strong as any in 
Europe, which would cost but a million, or about a 
penny in the shilling of the house-rent for one 
year) what foreign prince could bring an army 
from beyond seas, able to beat — 1. Our sea-forces, 
and next with horse harassed at sea, to resist all 
the fresh horse that England could make, and then 
conquer above a million of men, well united, disci- 
plined, and guarded within such a wall, distant 
everywhere three-quarters of a mile from the housing, 
to elude the granadoes and great shot of the enemy ] 
2. As to intestine parties and factions, I suppose that 
4,690,000 people united within this great city 
could easily govern half the said number scattered 



46 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

without it, and that a few men in arms within the 
said city and wall could also easily govern the 
rest unarmed, or armed in such a manner as the 
Sovereign shall think fit. 3. As to uniformity in 
religion, I conceive, that if St. Martin's parish 
(may as it doth) consist of about 40,000 souls, 
that this great city also may as well be made but 
as one parish, with seven times 130 chapels, in which 
might not only be an uniformity of common 
prayer, but in preaching also ; for that a thousand 
copies of one judiciously and authentically com- 
posed sermon might be every week read in each of 
the said chapels without any subsequent repetition 
of the same, as in the case of homilies. Whereas 
in England (wherein are near 10,000 parishes, in 
each of which upon Sundays, holy days, and other 
extraordinary occasions there should be about 100 
sermons per annum, making about a million of 
sermons per annum in the whole) it were a 
miracle, if a million of sermons composed by so many 
men, and of so many minds and methods, should 
produce uniformity upon the discomposed under- 
standings of about 8,000,000 of hearers. 

4. As to the administration of justice. If in 
this great city shall dwell the owners of all the 
lands, and other valuable things in England [ i£ 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 47 

within it shall be all the traders, and all the 
courts, offices, records, juries, and witnesses ; then it 
follows that justice may be done with speed and ease. 

5. As to the equality and easy levying of taxes. 
It is too certain that London hath at some time 
paid near half the excise of England, and tliat the 
people pay thrice as much for the hearths in 
London as those in the country, in proportion to 
the people of each, and that the charge of col- 
lecting these duties have been about a sixth part 
of the duty itself. Now in this great city the 
excise alone according to the present laws would 
not only be double to the whole kingdom, but also 
more equal. And the duty of hearths of the said 
city would exceed the present proct^ed of the whole 
kingdom. And as for the customs we mention 
.them not at present. 

6. Whether more would be gaiued by foreign 
commerce 1 The gain which England makes by 
lead, coals, the freight of shipping, tfcc, may be 
the same, for aught I see, in both cases. But the 
gain which is made by manufactures will be 
greater as the manufacture itself is greater and 
better. For in so vast a city manufactures will 
beget one another, and each manufacture wi]l be 
divided into as many parts as possible, whereby 



iS ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

the work of each artisan will be simple and easy. 
As, for example, in the making of a watch, if one 
man shall make the wheels, another the spring, 
another shall engrave the dial-plate, and another 
shall make the cases, then the watch will be better 
and cheaper than if the whole work be put upon 
any one man. And we also see that in towns, and 
in the streets of a great town, where all the inhabi- 
tants are almost of one trade, the commodity pe- 
culiar to those places is made better and cheaper 
than elsewhere. Moreover, when all sorts of 
manufactures are made in one place, there every 
ship that goeth forth can suddenly have its loading 
of so many several particulars and species as the 
port whereunto she is bound can take off. Again, 
when the several manufactures are made in one 
place, and shipped off in another, the carriage, post- 
age, and travelling charges, will enhance the price 
of such manufacture, and lessen the gain upon 
foreign commerce. And lastly, when the imported 
goods are spent in the port itself, where they are 
landed, the carriage of the same into other places 
will create no further charge upon such com- 
modity ; all which particulars tend to the greater 
gain by foreign commerce. 

7. As for arcs of delight and ornament. They 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 49 

are best promoted by the greatest number of emula- 
tors. And it is more likely that one ingenious 
curious man may rather be found out amongst 
4,000,000 than 400 persons. But as for husbandry^ 
viz., tillage and pasturage, I see no reason, but 
the second state (when each family is charged with 
the culture of about twenty-four acres) will best 
promote the same. 

8. As for lessening the fatigue of carriage and 
travelling. 

The thing speaks for itself, for if all the men of 
business, and all artisans, do live within five miles 
of each other, and if those who live without the 
great city do spend only such commodities as grow 
where they live, then the charge of carriage and 
travelling could be little. 

9. As to the preventing of beggars and thieves. 
I do not find how the difierences of the said two 

states should make much difference in this par- 
ticular ; for impotents (which are but one in about 
600) ought to be maintained by the rest. 2. Those 
who are unable to work, through the evil education 
of their parents, ought (for aught I know) to be 
maintained by their nearest kindred, as a just 
punishment upon them. 3. And those who can- 
not find work (though able and willing to perform) 



50 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

it), by reason of the unequal application of hands 
to lands, ought to be provided for by the magis- 
trate and landlord till that can be done ; for there 
need be no beggars in countries where there are 
many acres of unimproved improvable land to 
every head, as there are in England. As for 
thieves, they are for the most part begotten from 
the same cause ; for it is against Nature that any 
man should venture his life, limb, or liberty, for a 
wretched livelihood, whereas moderate labour will 
produce a better. But of this see Sir Thomas 
More, in the first part of his " Utopia." 

10. As to the propagation and improvement of 
useful learning. 

The same may be said concerning it as was above 
said concerning manufactures, and the arts of 
delight and ornaments ; for in the great vast city 
there can be no so odd a conceit or design where- 
unto some assistance may not be found, which in 
the thin, scattered way of habitation may not be. 

11. As for the increase of people by generation. 
I see no great difference from either of the two 
states, for the same may be hindered or promoted 
in either from the same causes. 

12. As to the plague. 

It is to be remembered that one time with 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 51 

another a plague happenetli in London once in 
twenty years, or thereabouts ; for in the last hun- 
dred years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there 
have been five great plagues — viz., A. d. 1592, 1603,. 
1625, 1636, and 1665. And it is also to be re- 
membered that the plagues of London do com- 
monly kill one-fifth part of the inhabitants. Now 
if the whole people of England do double but in 
360 years, then the annual increase of the same is- 
but 20,000, and in twenty years 400,000. But if 
in the city of London there should be 2,000,000 
of people (as there will be about sixty years hence)^ 
then the plague (killing one-fifth of them, namely, 
400,000 once in twenty years) will destroy as many 
in one year as the whole nation can re furnish in. 
twenty ; and consequently the people of the nation 
shall never increase. But if the people of London 
shall be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of our two- 
extravagant suppositions is premised), then the peo- 
ple of the whole nation shall lessen above 20,000 
per annum. So as if people be worth £70 per head 
(as hath elsewhere been shown), then the said 
greatness of the city will be a damage to itself and 
the whole nation of £1,400,000 per annum, 
and so jwo rata for a greater or lesser number ; 
wherefore to determine which of the two states is 



•52 ESSAYS ON MANKISD. 

best — that is to say, towards which of the said two 
states authority should bend the present state, a 
just balance ought to be made between the disad- 
vantages from the plague, with the advantages 
accruing from the other particulars above men- 
tioned, unto which balance a more exact account 
of the people, and a better rule for the measure of 
its growth is necessary than what we have here 
given, or are yet able to lay down. 



POSTSCEIPT. 



It was not very pertinent to a discourse concerning 
the growth of the city of London to thrust in con- 
siderations of the time when the whole world will 
be fully peopled ; and how to justify the Scriptures 
concerning the number of people mentioned in 
them ; and concerning the number of the quick 
and the dead that may rise at the last day, &c. 
Nevertheless, since some friends, liking the said 
digressions and impertinences (perhaps as sauce 
to a dry discourse) have desired that the same 
might be explained and made out, I, therefore, 
say as followeth : — 

1. If the number of. acres in the habitable 
part of the earth be under 50,000,000,000; if 
20,000,000,000 of people are more than the said 
number of acres will feed (few or no countries 
being so fully peopled), and for that in six doublings 
(which will be in 2,000 years) the present 
320,000,000 will exceed the said 20,000,000,000. 

2. That the number of all those who have died 



64 POSTSCRIPT. 

since the Flood is the sum of all the products 
made by multiplying the number of the doubling 
periods mentioned in the first column of the last 
table, by the number of people respectively affixed 
to them in the third column of the same table, 
the said sum being divided by 40 (one dying out 
of 40 per annum out of the whole mass of man- 
kind), which quotient is 12,570,000,000 ; where- 
unto may be added, for those that died before the 
Flood, enough to make the last-mentioned number 
20,000,000,000, as the full number of all that died 
from the beginning of the world to the year 1682, 
unto which, if 320,000,000, the number of those 
who are now alive, be added, the total of the quick 
and the dead will amount but unto one fifth part of 
the graves which the surface of Ireland will afford, 
without ever putting two bodies into any one 
grave ; for there be in Ireland 28,000 square 
English miles, each whereof will afford about 
4,000,000 of graves, and consequently above 
114,000,000,000 of graves, viz., about five times 
the number of the quick and the dead which 
should arise at the last day, in case the same had 
been in the year 1682. 

3. Now, if there may be place for five times as 
many graves in Ireland as are sufficient for all that 



POSTSCRIPT. 55 

ever died, and if the earth of one grave weigh five 
times as much as the body interred therein, then a 
turf less than a foot thick pared oflf from a fifth 
part of the surface of Ireland, will be equivalent 
in bulk and weight to all the bodies that ever were 
buried, and may serve as well for that purpose as 
the two mountains afore-mentioned in the body of 
this discourse. From all which it is plain how 
madly they were mistaken who did so petulantly 
yilify what the Holy Scriptures have delivered. 



FURTHER OBSERVATION UPON THE 
DUBLIN BILLS; 

Or, Accounts of the Houses, Hearths, Baptisms^ and BuritUti 
in that City. 



THE STATIONEE TO THE READER, 



I HAVE not thought fit to make any alteration of 
the first edition, but have only added a new table, 
with observation upon it, placing the same in the 
front of what was before, which, perhaps, might 
have been as well placed after the like table at the 
eighth page of the first edition. 



FURTHER OBSERVATIONS UPON- THB 
DUBLIN ACCOUNTS OF BAPTISMS AND 
BURIALS, HOUSES AND HEARTHS. 





Dublin, 


1682. 






Parishes. 


Houses. 


Fireplaces. 


Baptised 


Buried. 


St. James's . . . 


272 


836) 
2,198 


122 


306 


St. Katherine's . . 


540 


St. Nicholas With- > 










out and V 


1,064 


4,082 


145 


414 


St. Patrick's J 










St Bridget's . . 


395 


1,903 


68 


149 


St. Audone's , . 


276 


1,510 


56 


164 


St. Michael's . . 


174 


884 


34 


60 


St. John's . . . 


302 


1,636 


74 


101 


St. Nicholas Within") 










and [ 


163 


902 


26 


52 


Christ Church Lib. ) 










St. Warburgh's . 


240 


1,638 


45 


105 


St. Mohan's . . 


938 


3,516 


124 


389 


St. Andrew's . . 


864 


3,638 


131 


300 


St. Kevin's . , . 


664 


2,120 1 
506 1 


87 




Donnybrook . , , 


263 


233 




6,025 


25,369 


912 


2,263 



The table hath been made for the year 1682, 
wherein is to be noted — 

1. That the houses which A.D. 1671 were but 



62 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

3,850 are, a.d. 1682, 6,025; but whether this 
difference is caused by the real increase of housing, 
or by fraud and defect in the former accounts, is 
left to consideration. For the burials of people 
have increased but from 1,696 to 2,263, according 
to which proportion the 3,850 houses a.d. 1671 
should A.D. 1682 have been but 5,143, where- 
fore some fault may be suspected as aforesaid, 
when farming the hearth-money was in agitation. 

2. The hearths have increased according to the 
burials, and one- third of the said increase more, 
viz., the burials A.D. 1671 were 1,696, the one- 
third whereof is 563, which put together makes 
2,259, which is near the number of burials a.d. 
1682. But the hearths A.D. 1671 were 17,500, 
whereof the one-third is 5,833, making in all but 
23,333 ; whereas the whole hearths a.d. 1682 
were 25,369, vi^., one-third and better of the said 
5,833 more. 

3. The housing were a.d. 1671 but 3,850, 
which if they had increased a.d. 1682 but ac- 
cording to the burials, they had been but 5,143, 
or, according to the hearths, had been but 5,488, 
whereas they appear 6,025, increasing double to 
the hearths. So as it is likely there hath been 
some error in the said account of the housing, 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 6H 

unless the new housing be very small, and have 
but one chimney apiece, and that one-fourth part 
of them are untenanted. On the other hand, it is 
more likely that when 1,696 died per annum there 
•were near 6,000 ; for 6,000 houses at 8 inhabitants 
per house, would make the number of the people to 
be 48,000, and the number of 1,696 that died ac- 
cording to the rule of one out of 30, would have 
made the number of inhabitants about 50,000 : 
for which reason I continue to believe there was 
<8ome error in the account of 3,850 houses as afore- 
said, and the rather because there is no ground 
from experience to think that in eleven years the 
houses in Dublin have increased from 3,850 to 
6,025. 

Moreover, I rather think that the number of 
6,025 is yet short, because that number at 8 heads 
per house makes the inhabitants to be but 48,200 ; 
whereas the 2,263 who died in the year 1682, 
according to the aforementioned rule of one dying 
out of 30 makes the number of people to be 67,890, 
the medium betwixt which number and 48,200 ia 
58,045, which is the best estimate I can make of 
that matter, which I hope authority will ere long 
rectify, by direct and exact inquiries. 

4. As to the births, we say that a.d. 1640, 



64 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

1641, and 1642, at London, just before the troubles 
in religion began, the births were five-sixths of the 
burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness of 
families in London above the country, and the 
fewer breeders, and not for want of registering. 
Wherefore, deducting one-sixth of 2,263, which is 
377, there remains 1,886 for the probable number 
of births in Dublin for the year 1682; whereas 
but 912 are represented to have been christened in 
that year, though 1,023 were christened a.d. 1671, 
when there died but 1,696, which decreasing of 
the christening, and increasing of the burials, 
shows the increase of non-registering in the legal 
books, which must be the increase of Roman 
Catholics at Dublin. 

Tlie scope of this whole paper therefore is, that 
the people of Dublin are rather 58,000 than 
32,000, and that the dissenters, who do not 
register their baptisms, have increased from 391 to 
974 : but of. dissenters, none have increased but 
the Roman Catholics, whose numbers have increasd 
from about two to five in the said years. The 
exacter knowledge whereof may also be better had 
from direct inquiries. 



OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN 
BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681: AND 
THE STATE OF THAT CITY. 



The observations upon the London bills of mor- 
tality have been a new light to the world, and tho 
like observation upon those of Dublin may serve 
as snuffers to make the same candle bum clearer. 

The London observations flowed from bills regu- 
larly kept for near one hundred years, but these 
are squeezed out of six straggling London bills, out 
of fifteen Dublin bills, and from a note of the 
families and hearths in each parish of DubKn, 
which are all digested into the one table or sheet 
annexed, consisting of three parts, marked A, B, 
C; being indeed the A, B, C of public economy, 
and even of that policy which tends to peace and 
plenty. 

Observations upon the Table A. 

1. The total of the burials in London (for the 
said six straggling years mentioned in the Table A) 
is 120,170, whereof the medium or sixth part is 



66 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

20,028, and exceeds the burials of Paris, as may 

appear by the late bills of that city. 

2. The births, for the same time, are 73,683, 
the medium or sixth part whereof is 12,280, vvhicli 
is about five-eighth parts of the burials, and shows 
that London would in time decrease quite away, 
A^ere it not supplied out of the country, where are 
about five births for four burials, the proportion of 
breeders in the country being greater than in the 
city. 

3. The burials in Dublin for the said six years 
were 9,865, the sixth part or medium whereof is 
1,644, which is about the twelfth part of the 
London burials, and about a fifth part over. So 
as the people of London do hereby seem to be 
above twelve times as many as those of Dublin. 

4. The births in the same time at Dublin are 
6,157, the sixth part or medium whereof is 1,026, 
which is also about five-eighth parts of the 1^644 
burials, which shows tliat the proportion between 
burials and births are alike at London and Dublin, 
and that the accounts are kept alike, and conse- 
quently are likely to be true, there being no 
confederacy for that purpose ; which, if they be 
true, we then say — 

5. That the births are the best way (till tha 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 67 

accounts of the people shall be purposely taken) 
whereby to j udge of the increase and decrease of 
people, that of burials being subject to more con- 
tingencies and variety of causes. 

6. If births be as yet the measure of the people, 
and that the births (as has been shown) are as five 
to eight, then eight fifths of the births is the 
number of the burials, where the year was not 
considerable for extraordinary sickness or salu- 
brity, and is the rule whereby to measure the 
same. As for example, the medium of births in 
Dublin was 1,026, the eight-fifths whereof is 1,641, 
but the real burials were 1,644 ; so as in the said 
years they difiered little from the 1,641, which was 
the standard of health, and consequently the years 
1680, 1674, and 1668 were sickly years, more or 
less, as they exceeded the said number, 1,641 ; and 
the rest were healthful years, more or less, as they 
fell short of the same number. But the city was 
more or less populous, as the births difiered from 
the number 1,026, viz., populous in the years 
1680, 1679, 1678, and 1668, for other causes of 
this difference in births are very occult and un- 
certain. 

7. What hath been said of Dublin, serves alsa 
for London. 



bo ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

8. It hath already been observed by the London 
bills that there are more males than females. It is 
to be further noted, that in these six London bills, 
also, there is not one instance either in the births 
or burials to the contrary. 

9. It hath been formerly observed that in the 
years wherein most die fewest are born, and vice 
versd. The same may be further observed in males 
and females, viz., when fewest males are born then 
most die : for here the males died as twelve to 
eleven, which is above the mean proportion of four- 
teen to thirteen, but were born but as nineteen to 
eighteen, which is below the same. 

Observations upon the Table B. 

\. From the Table B it appears that the medium 
of the fifteen years' burials (being 24,199) is 1,613, 
•whereas the medium of the other six years in the 
Table A was 1,644, and that the medium of the 
fifteen years' births (being in all 14,765) is 984, 
whereas the medium of the said other six years 
was 1,026. That is to say, there were both fewer 
births and burials in these fifteen years than in 
the other six years, which is a probable sign that 
at a medium there were fewer people also. 

2. The medium of bii'ths for the fifteen years 



ESSAYS ON MAliKIND. OV 

being 984, whereof eight-fifths (being 1,576) is the 
standard of health for the said fifteen years ; and 
the triple of the said 1,576 being 4,728, is the 
standard for each of the ternaries of the fifteen 
years within the said table. 

3. That 2,952, the triple of 984 births, is for each 
ternary the standard of people's increase and de- 
crease from the year 1666 to 1680 inclusive, viz., 
the people increased in the second ternary, and 
decreased from the same in the third and fourth 
ternaries, but re-increased in the fifth ternary 
beyond any other. 

4. That the last ternary was withal very health- 
ful, the burials being but 4,624, viz., below 4,728, 
the standard. 

5. That according to this proportion of increase, 

the housing of Dublin have probably increased 

also. 

Observations upon the Table C. 

1. First, from the Table it appears, 1. That the 
housing of Dublin is such, as that there are not five 
hearths in each house one with another, but nearer 
five than four. 

2. That in St. Warburgh's parish are near six 
hearths to a house. In St. John's five. In St. 
Michael's above five. In St. Nicholas Within above 



70 ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 

six. In Christ Church above seven. In St. James's 
and St. Katherine's, and in St. Michan's, not four. 
In St. Kevin's about four. 

3. That in St. James's, St. Michan's, St. Bride's, 
St. Warburgh's, St. Andrew s, St. Michael's, and St. 
Patrick's, all the christenings were but 550, and 
the burials 1,055, viz., near double; and that in 
the rest of the parishes the christenings were five, 
and the burials seven, viz., as 457 to 634. Now 
whether the cause of this difference was negligence 
in accounts, or the greater ness of the families, &c., 
is worth inquiring. 

4. It is hard to say in what order (as to grealr 
ness) these parishes ought to stand, some having 
most families, some most hearths, some most births, 
and others most burials. Some parishes exceeding 
the rest in two, others in three of the said four 
particulars, but none in all four. Wherefore this 
table ranketh them according to the plurality of the 
said four particulars wherein each excelleth the other. 

6. The London observations reckon eight heads 
in each family, according to which estimation, 
there are 32,000 souls in the 4,000 families of 
Dublin, which is but half of what most men 
imagine, of which but about one sixth part are 
able to bear arms, besides the royal regiment. 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 71 

6. Without the knowledge of the true number of 
people, as a principle, the whole scope and use of 
the keeping bills of births and burials is impaired ; 
wherefore by laborious conjectures and calculations 
to deduce the number of people from the births 
and burials, may be ingenious, but very prepos- 
terous. 

7. If the number of families in Dublin be 
about 4,000, then ten men in one week (at the, 
charge of about £5 surveying eight families in aix 
hour) may directly, and without algebra, make aiv 
account of the whole people, expressing their- 
several ages, sex, marriages, title, trade, religion,, 
&c., and those who survey the hearths, or the con- 
stables or the parish clerks (may, if required) dO/ 
the same ex officio^ and without other charge, by 
the command of the chief governor, the diocesan, or 
the mayor, 

8. The bills of London have since their beginning 
admitted several alterations and improvements,, 
and £8 or £10 per annum surcharge, would 
make the bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and 
become an excellent instrument of Government. 
To which purpose the forms for weekly, quarterly, 
and yearly bills are humbly recommended, viz. : — 



72 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 







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ESSAYS ON- 
TABLE B.- 



MANKIND. 

-DUBLIN. 



73 



Anno Domini. 


Burials. ] Births. 


In Ternaries 
of Tears. 


1666 

1667 

1668 

1669 

1670 

1671 

1672 

1673 

1674 

1675 

1676 

1677 

1678 

1679 

1680 


1,480 
1,642 
1,699 
1,666 
1,713 
1,974 
1,436 
1,531 
2,106 
1,678 
1,391 
1,359 
1,401 
1,397 
1,826 


952 
1,001 1 
1,026) 
1,000] 
1,067 > 
1,003) 

967] 

933 y 

942) 
823] 

952 y 

897) 
1,045] 

1,061 y 

1,096) 


4,821 
5,353 
5,073 
4,328 
4,624 


2,979 
3,070 
2,842 
2,672 
3,202 




24,199 


14,765 


24,199 


14,765 


The medium or 15th ) 
part whereof is j 


1,613 


984 


1,613 


984 



74 



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C^C0'<*<lC«0t^00'J5O 



78 



ESSAYS ON MANKIND. 



CASUALTIES AND DISEASES. 




Aged above 70 years 




Epilepsy and planet . . 




Abortive and still-bom . 




Fever and ague . . . 




Childbed women . . . 




Pleurisy 




Convulsion 




Quinsy 




Teeth 




Executed, murdered, 




Worms 




drowned .... 




Gout and sciatica . . . 




Plague and spotted fever 




Stone 




Griping of the guts . . 




Palsy 




Scouring, vomiting, 




Consumption and French 




bleeding .... 




pox 




Smallpox 




Dropsy and tympany 




Measles 




Eickets and livergrown . 




Neither of all the other 




Headache and megrim . 




sorts 





A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONER 



Whereas you complain that these observations 
make no sufficient bulk, I could answer you that I 
wish the bulk of all books were less ; but do never- 
theless comply with you in adding what follows, 
tIz. : 

1. That the parishes of Dublin are very unequal ; 
some having in them above 600 families, and others 
under thirty. 

2. That thirteen parishes are too few for 4,000 
"families ; the middling parishes of London con- 
taining 120 families; according to which rate there 
should be about thirt^^-three parishes in Dublin. 

3. It is said that there are 84,000 houses or 
families in London, which is twenty-one times more 
than are in Dublin, and yet the birtlis and burials 
of London are but twelve times those of Dublin, 
which shows that the inhabitants of Dublin are 
more crowded and straitened in their housing 
than those of London; and consequently that to 



80 A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONBB. 

increase the buildings of Dublin will make that 
city more conformable to London. 

4. I shall also add some reasons for altering the 
present forms of the Dublin bills of mortality, ac- 
cording to what hath been here recommended — 
viz.; 

1. We give the distinctions of males and females 
in the births only; for that the burials must, at one 
time or another, be in the same proportion with 
the births. 

2. We do in the weekly and quarterly bills pro- 
pose that notice be taken in the burials of what 
numbers die above sixty and seventy, and what 
under sixteen, six, and two years old, foreseeing 
good uses to be made of that distinction. 

3. We do in the yearly bill reduce the casualties 
to about twenty-four, being such as may be dis- 
cerned by common sense, and without art, con- 
ceiving that more will but perplex and imbroil the 
account. And in the quarterly bills we reduce the 
diseases to three heads — viz., contagious, acute, and 
chronical, applying this distinction to parishes, in 
order to know how the diflerent situation, soil., and 
way of living in each parish doth dispose men to 
each of the said three species ; and in the weekly 
bills we take notice not only of the plague, but of 



A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONER. 81 

the other contagious diseases in each parish, that 
strangers and fearful persons may thereby know 
how to dispose of themselves. 

4. We mention the number of the people, as the 
fundamental term in all our proportions ; and with- 
out which all the rest will be almost fruitless. 

5. We mention the number of marriages made 
in every quarter, and in every year, as also the 
proportion which married persons bear to the 
whole, expecting in such observations to read the 
improvement of the nation. 

6. As for reliofions, we reduce them to three — 
viz. : (1) those who have the Pope of Rome for 
their head ; (2) who are governed by the laws of 
their country; (3) those who rely res]:)ectively 
upon their own private judgments. Now, whether 
these distinctions should be taken notice of or not, 
we do but faintly recommend, seeing many reasons 
pro and con for the same ; and, therefore, although 
we have mentioned it as a matter fit to be con- 
sidered, yet we humbly leave it to authority. 



TWO ESSAYS IN POLITICAL 
ARITHMETIC, 

Concerning the People, Housing, Hospitals^ dec, of 
London and Paris* 



TO THE KING'S MOST EXCELLENT 
MAJESTY. 



I DO presume, in a very small paper, to show your 
Majesty that your City of London seems more con- 
siderable than the two best cities of the French 
monarchy, and for. anght T can find, greater thau 
any other of the universe, which because I can say 
without flattery, and by such demonstration as 
your Majesty can examine, I humbly pray your 
Majesty to accept from 

Your Majesty's 
Most humble, loyal, and obedient subject, 
William Petty. 



AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC, 

Tending to prove that London hath more people and 
housing than the cities of Paris and Rouen put 
together, and is also more considerable in several 
other respects. 



1. The medium of the burials at London in the 
three last years — viz., 1683, 1684, and 1685, 
wherein there was no extraordinary sickness, and 
wherein the christenings do correspond in their 
ordinary proportions with the burials and eh listen- 
ings of each year one with another, was 22,337, 
and the like medium of burials for the three last 
Paris bills we could procure — viz., for the years 
1682, 1683, and 1684 (whereof the last as appears 
by the christenings to have been very sickly), is 
19,887. 

2. The city of Bristol in England appears to be 
by good estimate of its trade and customs as great 
as Rouen in France, and the city of Dublin in 
Ireland appears to have more chimneys tlian 
Bristol, and consequently more people,' and the 



88 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 

burials in Dublin were, a.d. 1682 (being a sickly 
year) but 2,263. 

3. Now the burials of Paris (being 19,887) being 
added to the burials of Dublin (supposed more 
than at Rouen) being 2,263, makes but 22,150,. 
whereas the burials of London were 187 more, or 
22,337, or as about 6 to 7. 

4. If those who die unnecessarily, and by mis- 
carriage in L'H6tel Dieu in Paris (being above 
3,000), as hath been elsewhere shown, or any part 
thereof, should be subtracted out of the Paris 
burials aforementioned, then our assertion will be 
stronger, and more proportionable to what follows 
concerning the housing of those cities, viz. : 

5. There were burnt at London, a.d. 1666, 
above 13,000 houses, which being but a fifth part 
of the whole, the whole number of houses in the 
said year were above 65,000 ; and whereas the 
ordinary burials of London have increased between 
the years 1666 and 1686, above one-third the total 
of the houses at London, a.d. 1686, must be 
about 87,000, which A.D. 1682, appeared by ac- 
count to have been 84,000. 

6. Monsieur Moreri, the great French author 
of the late geographical dictionaries, who makes 
Parifc the greatest city in the world, doth reckon 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 89 

but 50,000 houses in the same, and other autliors 
and knowing men much less; nor are there full 
7,000 houses in the city of Dublin, so as if the 
50,000 houses of Paris, and the 7,000 houses in 
the city of Dublin were added together, the total 
is but 57,000 houses, whereas those of London 
are 87,000 as aforesaid, or as 6 to 9. 

7. As for the shipping and foreign commerce of 
London, the common sense of all men doth judge 
it to be far greater than that of Paris and Rouen 
put together. 

8. As to the wealth and gain accruing to the 
inhabitants of London and Paris by law-suits (or 
La chicane) I only say that the courts of London 
extend to all England and Wales, and affect seven 
millions of people, whereas those of Paris do not 
extend near so far. Moreover, there is no palpable 
conspicuous argument at Paris for the number and 
"wealth of lawyers like the buildings anrj chambers 
in the two Temples, Lincoln's Inn, Gray's Inn, 
Doctors' Commons, and the seven other inns in 
which are chimneys, which are to be seen at 
London, besides many lodgings, halls, and offices, 
relating to the same. 

9. As to the plentiful and easy living of the 
people we say, 



90 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 

(a.) That the people of Paris to those of London, 
being as about 6 to 7, and the housing of the same 
as about 6 to 9, we infer that the people do not 
live at London so close and crowded as at Paris^ 
but can afford themselves more room and liberty. 

(b.) That at London the hospitals are better and 
more desirable than those of Paris, for that in 
the best at Paris there die two out of fifteen, 
whereas at London there die out of the worst 
scarce 2 out of 16, and yet but a fiftieth part of 
the whole die out of the hospitals at London, 
and two-fifths, or twenty times that proportion die 
out of the Paris hospitals which are of the same 
kind ; that is to say, the number of those at 
London, who choose to lie sick in hospitals rather 
than in their own houses, are to the like people of 
Paris as one to twenty ; which shows the greater 
poverty or want of means in the people of Paris 
than those of London. 

(c.) We infer from the premises, viz., the dying 
scarce two of sixteen out of the London hos})itals, 
and about two of fifteen in the best of Paris, to say 
nothing of L'Hotel Dieu, that either the physicians 
and chirurgeons of London are better than those of 
Paris, or that the air of London is more wholesome. 

10. As for the other great cities of the world, if 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 91 

Paris were the greatest we need say no more in 
behalf of London. As for Pekin in China, we 
have no account fit to reason upon ; nor is there 
anything in the description of the two late 
voyages of the Chinese emperor from that city into 
East and West Tartary, in the years 1682 and 
1683, which can make us recant what we have 
said concerning London. As for Delhi and Agra, 
belonging to the Mogul, we find nothing against 
our position, but much to show the vast numbers 
whi»h attend that emperor in his business and 
pleasures. 

11. We shall conclude with Constantinoj^le and 
Grand Cairo ; as for Constantinople it hath been 
said by one who endeavoured to show the greatness 
of that city, and the greatness of the plague which 
raged in it, that there died 1,500 per diem, with- 
out other circumstances ; to which we answer, that 
in the year 1665 there died in London 1,200 per 
diem, and it hath been well proved that the Plague 
of London never carried away above one-fifth of 
the people, whereas it is commonly believed that 
in Constantinople, and other eastern cities, and 
even in Italy and Spain, that the plague takes 
away two-fifths, one half, or more ; wherefore where 
1,200 is but one fifth of the people it is probable 



92 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 

that the number was greater, than where 1,500 
was two-fifths or one half, ikc. 

12, As for Grand Cairo it is reported, that 
73,000 died in ten weeks, or 1,000 per diem, 
where note, that at Gi-and Cairo the plague comes 
and goes away suddenly, and that the plague takes 
away two or three-fifths parts of the people as 
aforesaid ; so as 73,000 was probably the number 
of those that died of the plague in one whole year 
at Grand Cairo, whereas at London, a.d. 1665, 
97,000 were brought to account to have died in 
that year. Wherefore it is certain, that that city 
wherein 97,000 was but one-fifth of the people, 
the number was greater than where 73,000 was 
two-fifths or the half. 

We therefore conclude, that London hath more 
people, housing, shipping, and wealth, than Paris 
and Rouen put together; and for aught yet ap- 
pears, is more considerable than any other city in 
the universe, which was propounded to be proved. 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 93 



AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL AHITHMETIC, 

Tending to prove that in the hospital called L^ Hotel 
Dieu at Paris, there die above 3,000 per annum 
by reason of ill accommodation. 

r. It appears that a.d. 1678 there entered into 
the Hospital of La Charity 2,647 souls, of which 
there died there within the said year 338, which is 
above an eighth part of the said 2,647 ; and that in 
the same year there entered into L'Hdtel Dieu 
21,491, and that there died out of that number 
5,630, which is above one quarter, so as about half 
the said 5,630, being 2,815, seem to have died for 
want of as good usage and accommodation as might 
have been had at La Charite. 

2. Moreover, in the year 1679 there entered 
into La Charity 3,118, of which there died 452, 
which is above a seventh part, and in the same 
year there entered into L'H6tel Dieu 28,635, of 
which there died 8,397 j and in both the said 
years 1678 and 1679 (being very different in their 
degrees of mortality) there entered into L'Hdtel 



94 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 

Dieu 28,635 and 21,491— in all 50,126, the medium 
whereof is 25,063 ; and there died out of the same 
in the said two years, 5,630 and 8,397 — in all 
14,027, the medium whereof is 7,013. 

3. There entered in the said years into La 
Charity 2,647 and 3,118, in all 5,765, the medium 
whereof is 2,882, whereof there died 338 and 452, 
in all 790, the medium whereof is 395. 

4. Now, if there died out of L'Hotel Dieu 7,013 
per annum, and that the proportion of those that 
died out of L'Hotel Dieu is double to those that 
died out of La Charite (as by the above numbers it 
appears to be near thereabouts), then it follows 
that half the said numbers of 7,013, being 3,506, 
did not die by natural necessity, but by the evil 
administration of that hospital. 

5. This conclusion seemed at the first sight very 
strange, and rather to be some mistake or chance 
than a solid and real truth ; but considering the 
same matter as it appeared at London, we were 
more reconciled to the belief of it, viz. : — 

(a.) In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in 
London, there was sent out and cured in the year 
1685, 1,764 persons, and there died out of the 
said hospital 252. Moreover, there were sent out 
and cured out of St. Thomas's Hospital 1,523, and 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 95 

buried, 209 — that is to say, there were cured in 
both hospitals 3,287, and buried out of both hos- 
pitals 461, and consequently cured and buried 
3,748, of which number the 461 buried is less than 
an eighth part; whereas at La Charitd the part 
that died was more than an eighth part; which 
shows that out of the most poor and wretched 
hospitals of London there died fewer in proportion 
than out of the best in Paris. 

(b.) Furthermore, it hath been above shown that 
there died out of La Charity at a medium 395 per 
annum, and 141 out of Les Incurables, making in 
all 536 ; and that out of St. Bartholomew's and St. 
Thomas's Hospitals, London, there died at a medium 
but 461, of which Les Incurables are part ; which 
shows that although there be more people in 
London than in Paris, yet there went at London 
not so many people to hospitals as there did at 
Paris, although the poorest hospitals at London 
were better than the best at Paris; which shows 
that the poorest people at London have better 
accommodation in their own houses than the best 
hospital of Paris affordeth. 

6. Having proved that there die about 3,506 
persons at Paris unnecessarily, to the damage of 
France, we come next to compute the value of the 



96 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 

said damage, and of the remedy thereof, as follows, 
viz., the value of the said 3,506 at 60 livres sterling 
per head, being about the value of Argier slaves 
(which is less than the intrinsic value of people 
at Paris), the whole loss of the subjects of France 
in that hospital seems to be 60 times 3,506 livres 
sterling per annum, viz., 210,360 livres sterling, 
equivalent to about 2,524,320 French livres. 

7. It hath appeared that there came into 
L'Hotel Dieu at a medium 25,063 per annum, 
or 2,089 per mensem^ and that the whole stock 
of what remained in the precedent months is at a 
medium about 2,108 (as may appear by the third 
line of the Table No. 5, which shall be shortly 
published), viz., the medium of months is 2,410 
for the sickly year 1679, whereunto 1,806 being 
added as the medium of months for the year 1678, 
makes 4,216, the medium whereof is the 2,108 
above mentioned ; which number being added to 
the 2,089 which entered each month, makes 4,197 
for the number of sick which are supposed to be 
always in L'Hotel Dieu one time with another. 

8. Now, if 60 French livres per annum for each 
of the said 4,197 sick persons were added to the 
present ordinary expense of that hospital (amount- 
ing to an addition of 251,820 livres), it seems that 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 97 

SO many lives might be saved as are "worth above 
ten times that sum, and this by doing a manifest 
deed of charity to mankind. 

Memorandum. — That A.D. 1685, the burials of 
London were 23,222, and those of Amsterdam 
6,245 ; from whence, and the difference of air, it 
is probable that the people of London are quad- 
ruple to those of Amsterdam. 



OBSEEVATIONS UPON THE CITIES 
OF LONDON AND EOME. 



OBSERVATIONS UPON THE CITIES OF 
LONDON AND EOME. 



1. That before the year 1630 the christenings 
at London exceeded the burials of the same, but 
about the year 1655 they were scarce half; and 
now about two-thirds. 

2. Before the restoration of monarchy in Eng- 
land, A.D. 1660, the people of Paris were more 
than those of London and Dublin put together, 
whereas now, the people of London are more than 
those of Paris and Rome, or of Paris and Rouen. 

3. A.D. 1665 one fifth part of the then 
people of London, or 97,000, died of the plague, 
and in the next year, 1666, 13,000 houses, or one 
fifth part of all the housing of London, were burnt 
also. 

4. At the birth of Christ old Rome was the 
greatest city of the world, and London the greatest 
at the coronation of King James II., and near six 
times as great as the present Rome, wherein are 
119,000 souls besides Jews. 



102 OBSERVATIONS ON LONDON AND ROME. 

5. In the years of King Charles II. 's death, 
and King James II. 's coronation (which were 
neither of them remarkable for extraordinary 
sickliness or healthf ulness) the burials did wonder- 
fully agree, viz., a.d. 1684, they were 23,202, 
and A.D. 1685, they were 23,222, the medium 
whereof is 23,212. And the christenings did very 
wonderfully agree also, having been A.D. 1684, 
14,702, and a.d. 1685, 14,732, the medium 
whereof is 14,716, which consistence was never 
seen before, the said number of 23,212 burials 
making the people of London to be 6'06,36O, at the 
rate of one dying per annum out of 30. 

6. Since the great Fire of London, a.d. 1666, 
about 7 parts of 15 of the present vast city hath 
been new built, and is with its people increased 
near one half, and become equal to Paris and 
Rome put together, the one being the seat of 
the great French Monarchy, and the other of the 
Papacy. 



FIVE ESSAYS IN POLITICAL 
ARITHMETIC. 



L Objections from the city of Key in Persia, and from Mon- 
sier Auzout, against two former essays, answered, and 
that London hath as many people as Paris, Rome, and 
Rouen put together. 

n. A comparison between London and Paris in 14 particulars. 

III. Proofs that at London, within its 134 parishes named 
in the bills of mortality, there live about 696,000 people. 

IV. An estimate of the people in London, Paris, Amsterdam, 
Venice, Rome, Dublin, Bristol, and Rouen, with several 
observations upon the same. 

V. Concerning Holland and the rest of the Seven United Pro 

vinces. 



TO THE KING^S MOST EXCELLENT 
MAJESTY 

Sir, 
Your Majesty having graciously accepted my 
two late essays, about the cities and hospitals of 
London and Paris, as also my observations on 
Rome and Rouen ; I do (after six months' waiting 
for what may be said against my several doctrines 
by the able men of Europe) humbly present your 
Majesty with a* few other papers upon the same 
subject, to strengthen, explain, and enlarge the 
former ; hoping by such real arguments, better to 
praise and magnify your Majesty, than by any' 
©ther the most specious words and eulogies that can 
be imagined by 

Your Majesty's 

Most humble, loyal 

And obedient subject, 
William Petty. 



THE FIRST ESSAY. 



It could not be expected that an assertion of 
London's being bigger than Paris and Rouen, or 
than Paris and Rome put together, and bigger 
than any city of the world, should escape uncon- 
tradicted ; and 'tis also expected that I (if continu- 
ing in the same persuasion), should make some 
reply to those contradictions. In order where- 
unto, 

I begin with the ingenious author of the '' Re- 
puhliqiie des Lettres^'' who saith that Rey in Persia 
is far bigger than London, for that in the sixth 
century of Christianity (I suppose, a.d. 550 the 
middle of that century), it had 15,000, or rather 
44,000 mosques or Mahometan temples ; to which 
I reply, that I hope this objector is but in jest, 
for that Mahomet was not born till about the 
year 570, and had no mosques till about 50 years 
after. 

In the next place 1 reply to the excellent Mon- 
sieur Auzout's " Letters from Rome," who is 
content that London, Westminster, and Southwark 



108 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 

may have as many people as Paris and its suburbs ; 
and but faintly denieth, that all the housing 
within the bills may have almost as many people 
as Paris and Rouen, but saith that several parishes 
inserted into these bills are distant from, and 
not contiguous with London, and that Grant so 
understood it. 

To which (as his main if not his only objection) 
we answer : — (1) That the London bills appear in 
Grant's book to have been always, since the year 
1636, as they now are ; (2) That about fifty years 
since, three or four parishes, formerly somewhat 
distant, were joined by interposed buildings to the 
bulk of the city, and therefore then inserted into 
the bills; (3) That since fifty years the whole 
buildings being more than double have perfected 
that union, so as there is no house within the said 
bills from which one may not call to some other 
house ; (4) All this is confirmed by authority of 
the king and city, and the custom of fifty years ; 
(5) That there are but three parishes under any 
colour of this exception which are scarce one-fifty- 
second part of the whole. 

Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsieur 
Auzout's large letter, dated the 19th of November, 
from Ptome, I made remarks upon every paragraph 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 



109 



thereof, but suppressing it (because it looked like 
a war against a worthy person with whom I in- 
tended none, whereas, in truth, it was but a re- 
conciling explication of some doubts) I have chosen 
the shorter and softer way of answering Monsieur 
Auzout as followeth, viz. : — 

Concerning the number of people in London, as 
also in Paris, Rouen, and Rome, viz. : — 

Monsieur Auzout allegeth an authentic '' 
account that there al-e 23,22-3 houses in 
Paris, wherein do live about eighty 
thousand families, and therefore sup- 
posing three and a half families to live 
in every of the said houses, one-' with [-487,680 
another, the number of families will be 
81,280 ; and Monsier Auzout also allow- 
ing six heads to each family, the utmost 
number of people in Paris, according to 
that opinion, will be ) 

The medium of the Paris burials was 
not denied by Monsier Auzout to be 
19,887, nor that there died 3,506 un- 
necessarily out of the L'H6tel Dieu ; 
wherefore deducting the said last number 
out of the former, the net standard for 



110 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 



491,430 



burials at Paris will be 16,381, so, as the 
number of people there, allowing but one 
to die out of thirty (which is more 
advantageous to Paris than Monsieur 
Auzout's opinion of one to die out of 
twenty-five) the number of people at 
Paris will be 491,430 more than by 
Monsier Auzout's own last-mentioned 
account. ) 

And the medium of the said two Paris 
accounts is 

The medium of the London burials "l 
is really 23,212, which, multiplied by I 
thirty (as hath been done for Paris), the [ 
number of the people there will be ) 

The number of houses at London ap- "i 
pears by the register to be 105,315, where- 
unto adding one-tenth part of the same, 
or 10,331, em the least number of double 
families that can be supposed in London, > 695,076 
the total of families will be 115,840, and ^ 
allowing six heads for each family, as 
was done for Paris, the total of the 
people at London will be 



488,055 



696,360 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 

The medium of the two last London 



accounts is 

So, as the people of Paris, 
according to the above ac- 
count, is 



111 

[695,718 



[488, 



055 



Of Rouen, according to "i 
Monsieur AuzouVs utmost V 80,000 
demands J 



693,055 



h 



663 



Of Rome, according to his "j 
own report thereof in a former V 125,000 
letter. J 

So as there are more people at London 
than at Paris, Rouen, and Rome by 

Memorandum. — That thtt parishes of 
Islington, Newington, and Hackney, for 
which only there is any colour of non- 
contiguity, is not one-fifty-second part of 
what is contained in the bills of mortality, 
and consequently London, without the 
said three parishes, hath more people 
than Paris and Rouen put together, by 

Which number of 114,284 is probably more 
people than any other city of France contains. 



M14,284 



112 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL AEITHMETIC. 



THE SECOND ESSAY. 



As for other comparisons of London with Paris, 
we farther repeat and enlarge what hath been 
formerly said upon those matters, as foUoweth, 
viz. : — 

1. That forty per cent, die out of the hospitals 
at Paris where so many die unnecessarily, and 
scarce one-twentieth of that proportion out of the 
hospitals of London, which have been shown to be 
better than the best of Paris. 

2. That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less 
than 24,000 street-doors, which makes less cleanly 
and convenient way of living than at London. 

3. Where the number of christenings are near 
unto, or exceed the burials, the people are poorer, 
having few servants and little equipage. 

4. The river Thames is more pleasant and navi- 
gable than the Seine, and its waters better and 
more wholesome ; and the bridge of London is the 
most considerable of all Europe. 

5. The shipping and foreign trade of London is 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 11^ 

incomparably greater than that at Paris and 
Rouen. 

6. The lawyers' chambers at London have 2,772 
chimnies in them, and are worth ^140,000 sterlings 
or 3,000,000 of French livres, besides the dwellings- 
of their families elsewhere, 

7. The air is more wholesome, for that at 
London scarce two of sixteen die out of the worst 
hospitals, but at 'Paris above two of fifteen out of 
the best. Moreover the burials of Paris are one- 
fifth part above and below the medium, but at 
London not above one-twelfth, so as the intem- 
peries of the air at Paris is far greater than at 
London. 

8. The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, 
the coals being a wholesome sulphurous bitu- 
iQen. 

9. All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and 
of fish, are cheaper, and drinks of all sorts in 
greater variety and plenty. 

10. The churches of London we leave to be 
judged by thinking that nothing at Paris is so 
great as St. Paul's was, and is like to be, nor so 
beautiful as Henry the Seventh's chapel. 

IL On the other hand, it is probable, that there 
is more money in Paris than London, if the public 



114 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 

revenue (grossly speaking, quadruple to that of 
England) be lodged there. 

12. Paris hath not been for these last fifty years 
so much infested with the plague as London ; now 
that at London the plague (which between the 
years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, viz., every 
fifteen years, at a medium, and at each time carried 
away one-fifth of the people) hath not been known 
for the 21 years last past, and there is a visible 
way by God's ordinary blessing to lessen the same 
by two-thirds when it next appeareth. 

13. As to the ground upon which Paris stands 
in respect of London, we say, that if there be five 
stories or floors of housing at Paris, for four at 
London, or in that proportion, then the 82,000 
families of Paris stand upon the equivalent of 
65,000 London housteds, and if there be 115,000 
families at London, and but 82,000 at Paris, then 
the proportion of the London ground to that of 
Paris is as 115 to sixty -five, or as twenty- three to 
thirteen. 

14. Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of 
three English miles long and two and a half broad, 
the area whereof contains but five and a half square 
miles ; but London is seven miles long, and one 
and a quarter broad at a medium, which makes 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 115 

an area of near nine square miles, which proportion 
of five and half to nine differs little from that of 
thirteen to twenty-three. 

15. Memorandum, that in Nero's time, as Mon- 
sieur Chivreau reporteth, there died 300,000 people 
of the plague in old Rome ; now if there died three 
of ten then and there, being a hotter country, as 
there dies two of ten at London, the number of 
people at that time, was but a million, whereas at 
London they are now about 700,000. Moreovei 
the ground within the walls of old Rome was a 
circle but of three miles diameter, whose area is 
about seven square miles, and the suburbs scarce as- 
much more, in all about thirteen square miles._ 
whereas the built ground at London is about nine 
square miles as aforesaid ; which two sorts of pro- 
portions agree with each other, and consequently- 
old Rome seems but to have been half as big again 
as the present London, which we offer to anti- 
quariea 



116 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 



THE THIRD ESSAY. 



Proofs that the number of people in the 134 
parishes of the London bills of mortality, without 
reference to other cities, is about 696,000, viz. — 
I know but three ways of finding the same. 

1. By the houses, and families, and heads living 
in each. 

2. By the number of burials in healthful times, 
and by the proportion of those that live, to those 
that die. 

3. By the number of those who die of the plague 
in pestilential years, in proportion to those that 
escape. 

The First Way. 

To know the number of houses, I used three 
methods, viz. — 

1. The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 
1666, which by authentic report was 13,200 ; next 
what proportion the people who died out of those 
houses, bore to the whole ; which I find a.d. 1686, 
to be but one seventh part, but a.d. 1666 to ba 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 117 

almost one-fifth, from whence I infer the whole 
housing of London a.d. 1666 to have been 66,000, 
then finding the burials A.D. 1666 to be to those 
of 1686 as 3 to 4, I pitch upon 88,000 to be the 
number of housing A.D. 1686. 

2. Those who have been emplof^ed in making the 
general map of London, set forth in the year 1682^ 
told me that in that year they had found above 
84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore a.d. 
1686, or in four years more, there might be one- 
tenth or 8,400 houses more (London doubling in 
forty years) so as the whole, a.d. 1686 might be 
92,400. 

3. I found that a.d. 1685, there were 29,325 
hearths in Dublin, and 6,400 houses, and in London 
388 thousand hearths, whereby there must have 
been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. More- 
over I found that in Bristol there were in the same 
year 16,752 hearths, and 5,307 houses, and in 
London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid ; at which rate 
there must have been 123,000 houses in London^ 
and at a medium between Dublin and Bristol pro- 
portions 105,000 houses. 

Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, 1 
find the houses within the bills of mortality to be 
105,315. 



118 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIO. 

Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to 
the number of families in them, and first I thought 
that if there were three or four families or kitchens 
in every house of Paris, there might be two families 
in one-tenth of the housing of London ; unto which 
supposition, the common opinion of several friends 
■doth concur with my own conjectures. 

As to the number of heads in each family, I stick 
to Grant's observation in page — of his fifth edition, 
that in tradesmen of London's families there be 
€ight heads one with another, in families of higher 
ranks, above ten, and in the poorest near five, ac- 
cording to which proportions, I had upon another 
occasion pitched the medium of heads in all the 
families of England to be six and one-third, but 
quitting the fraction in this case, I agree with 
Monsieur Auzout for six. 

To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 
and the addition of double families 10,531 more, in 
all 115,846; I multiplied the same by six, which 
produced 695,076 for the number of the people. 

The Second Way, 
I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being 
next each other, and both healthful, did wonder- 
fully agree in their burials, viz., 1684 they were 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL AEITHMETIC. 119 

23,202, and,A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium where- 
of is 23,212 ; moreover that the christenings 1684 
were 14,702, and those a.d. 1685 were 14,730, 
wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials 
23,212 by 30, supposing that one dies out of 30 at 
London, which made the number of people 696,360 
souk. 

Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London 
or thereabouts, I say — 

1. That Grant in the — ps^ge of his fifth edition, 
affirmeth from observation, that 3 died of 88 per 
annum which is near the same proportion. 

2. I found that out of healthful places, and out 
of adult persons, there dies much fewer, as but one 
out of 50 among our parliament men, and that 
the kings of England having reigned 24 years 
one with another, probably lived above 30 years 
each. 

3. Grant, page — hath shown that but about one 
of 20 die per annum out of young children under 
10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout thinks that but 
1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion 
of adult persons there, wherefore we still stick as a 
medium to the number 30. 

4. In nine country parishes lying in several 
parts of England, I find that but one of 37 hath 



120 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 

<iied per annum, or 311 out of 11,507, wherefor'^ 
till I see another round number, grounded upon 
many observations, nearer than 30, I hope to have 
done pretty well in multiplying our burials by 30 to 
find the number of the people, the product being 
696,360, and what we find by the families they 
are 695,076, as aforesaid. 

The Third Way. 

It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the 
people died of the plague, but a.d. 1665 there 
died of the plague near 98,000 persons, the 
quintuple whereof is 490,000 as the number of 
people in the year 1665, whereunto adding above 
one-third, as the increase between 1665 and 1686, 
the total is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the 
other two computations above mentioned. 

Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue 
till a better be put in its place. 

Memorandum. That two or three hundred new 
houses would make a contiguity of two or three 
other great parishes, with the 134 already men- 
tioned in the bills of mortality : and that an oval 
wall of about twenty miles in compass would enclose 
the same, and all the shipping at Deptford and 
Black wall, and would also fence in 20,000 acres of 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 1L*1 

Innd, and lay the foundation or designation of 
several vast advantages to the owners, and inhabi- 
tants of that ground, as also to the whole nation 
and government. 



122 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL AEITHMETia 



THE FOURTH ESSAY. 



Concerning the proportions of People in tht eight 
eminent Cities of Christendom undernamedy 

viz. : — 
1. "We bave by the number of burials in healthful 
years, and by the proportion of the living to those 
who die yearly, as also by the number of houses 
and families within the 134 parishes called 
London, and the estimate of the heads in each, 
pitched upon the number of people in that city to 
be at a medium 695,718. 

2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 
80,000 families, viz., 81,280, do live in 23,223 
houses, 32 palaces, and 38 colleges, or that there 
are 81,290 kitchens within less than 24,000 street 
doors ; as also by allowing 30 heads for every one 
that died necessarily there ; we have pitched upon 
the number of people there at a medium to be 
488,055, nor have we restrained them to 300,000, 
by allowing with Monsieur Auzout 6 heads for 
each of Moreri's 50,000 houses or families. 

3. To Am.sterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 123 

30 times the number of their burials, "which were 
6,245 in the year 1685. 

4. To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found 
there in a special account taken by authority, 
about ten years since, when the city abounded 
with such as returned from Candia, then surren- 
dered to the Turks. 

5. To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 
6,000 Jews, in all 125,000 souls, according to an 
account sent thither of the same by Monsieur 
Auzout. 

6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 
times its burials, the medium whereof for the last 
two years is 2,303, viz., 69,090 souls. 

7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 
houses of Dublin give 69,090 people, that the 
5,307 houses of Bristol must give above 56,000 
people. Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths of 
Dublin give 69,090 people, the 16,752 hearths of 
Bristol must giv« about 40,000 ; but the medium 
of 56,000 and 40,000 is 48,000. 

8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur 
Auzout's fancy of 80,000 souls to be in that city, 
and the conjecture of knowing men that Rouen is 
between the one-seventh and one-eighth part of 
Paris, and also that it is by a third bigger than 



124 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC, 



Bristol; by all which, we estimate, till farther 
light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000 people 
in it. 

Now it may be wondered why we mentioned 
Kouen at all, having had so little knowledge of it ; 
whereunto we answer, that we did not think it just 
to compare London with Paris, as to shipping and 
foreign trade, without adding Rouen thereunto, 
Rouen being to Paris as that part of London which 
is below the bridge, is to what is above it. 

All which we heartily submit to the correc- 
tion of the curious and candid, in the meantime ob- 
serving according to the gross numbers under- 
mentioned. 

London 696,000 



Paris 

Amsterdam 

Venice 

Rome 

Dublin 

Bristol 

Rouen 



488,000 

187,000 

134,000 

125,000 

69,000 

48/<r00 

66,000 



Observations on the said Eight Cities. 

1. That the people of Paris being . . . 488,000 
„ ., ,, „ Rome .... 125,000 
, Rouen .... 66,000 



do make in all but . 
17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone. 



679,00® 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC, ]2.\ 

2. That the people of tlie two English cities ;u«l 
emporiums— viz., of London, 696,000, and Bristol, 
*8,000— do make 744,000, or more than 

III Paris 488,000 

„ Amsterdam .... 187,090 
„ Rouen 66,000 

Being in all . . . 741,000 

3. That the same two English cities seem equi- 
valent 

To Paris, which hath 488,000 soiila. 
„ Rouen „ „ 66,000 „ 
„ Lyons „ „ 100,000 „ 
„ Toulouse „ 90,000 ^ 



In all . . 744,000 

If there be any error in these conjectures con- 
cerning these cities of France, we hope they will be 
mended by those whom we hear to be now at work 
upon that matter. 

4. That the King of England's three cities, viz, : 

London . 696,000) r Paris . . 488,000 

Dubhn . 69,000 [ exceed ■{ Amsterdam . 187 000 
Bristol . 48,000) I Venice . . 134,000 

In aU 813,000 Bemg but 809,000 

5. That of the four great emporiums, London^ 
Amsterdam, Venice, and Rouen, London alone 



126 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 

is near double to the other three, viz., above 
7 to 4. 

Amsterdam 187,000 ) 
Venice . 134,000 > 387,000 
Rouen . 66,000 ' 2 ' 



774,000 London 696,000 
6. That London, for aught appears, is the 

greatest and most considerable city of the world, 

but manifestly the greatest emporium. 

When these assertions have passed the exa<men 

of the critics, we shall make another essay, showing 

how to apply those truths to the honour and profit 

of the King and Kingdom of England. 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 127 



THE FIFTH ESSAY. 



Concerning Holland and the rest of the United 
Provinces. 

Since the close of this paper, it hath been objected 
from Holland, that what hath been said of the 
number of houses and people in London is not like 
to be true ; for that if it were, then liondon would 
be the two-thirds of the whole Province of Holland. 
To which is answered, that London is the two- 
thirds of all Holland, and more, that [(rovince 
having not 1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 
is the two-thirds), nor above 800,000, as we have 
credibly and often heard. For suppose Amster- 
dam hath — as we have elsewhere noted — 187,000, 
the seven next great cities at 30,000 each, one with 
another, 210,000, the ten next at 15,000 each 
150,000, the ten smallest at 6,000 eacli 60,000— in 
all, the twenty-eight walled cities and towns of Hoi- 
land 607,000 ; in the dorps and villages 193,000, 
which is about one head for every four acres of land ; 
whereas in England there is eight acres for every 
head, without the cities and market- towns. 



128 ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 

Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, 
should have seven heads in each — the medium 
between MM. Auzout's and Grant's reckonings — 
the total of the people would be 812,000 ; or if we 
reckon that there dies one out of thirty-four — the 
medium between thirty and thirty-seven above men- 
tioned — the total of the people would be thirty-four 
times 23,212, viz., 789,208, the medium between 
which number and the above 812,000 is 800,604, 
somewhat exceeding 800,000, the supposed number 
of Holland. 

Furthermore, I say that upon former searches 
into the peopling of the world, I never found that 
in any country — not in China itself — there was 
more than one man to every English acre of land : 
many territories passing for well-peopled where 
there is but one man for ten such acres. I found 
by measuring Holland and West Frisia {alias 
North Holland) upon the best maps, tliat it con- 
tained but as many such acres as London doth of 
people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I therefore venture 
to pronounce (till better informed) that the people 
of London are as many as those of Holland, or at 
least above two-thirds of the same, which is enough 
to disable the objection above mentioned ; nor is 
ihi^r.) any need to strain up London from 696,000 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL AEITHMfiMC. 129 

to 800,000, though competent reasons have been 
giyen to that purpose, and though the author of 
the excellent map of London, set forth a.d. 1682, 
reckoned the people thereof (as by the said map 
appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought 
the houses of the same to be but 85,000. 

The worthy person who makes this objection 
in the same letter also saith — 

1. That the province of Holland hath as many 
people as the other six united provinces together, 
and as the whole kingdom of England, and double 
to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say, 
2,000,000 souls. 2. He says that in London and 
Amsterdam, and other trading cities, there are 
ten heads to every family, and that in Amsterdam 
there are not 22,000 families. 3. He excepteth 
against the register alleged by Monsieur Auzout, 
which makes 23,223 houses and above 80,000 
famHies to be in Paris; as also against the register 
alleged by Petty, making 105,315 houses to be in 
London, with a tenth part of the same to be of 
famiUes more than houses; and probably will 
except against the register of 1,163 houses to be 
in all England, that number giving, at six and one- 
third heads to each family, about 7,000,000 people, 
upon all which we remark as follows, viz. :— 



loO" irssATS ri5r political arithmetic. 

1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, 
that then all Holland containeth but the double of 
that number, or 976,000, wherefore London, con- 
taining 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of all 
Holland by 46,000. 

2. If Paris containeth half as many people as 
there are in all England, it must contain 3,500,000 
souls, or above seven times 488,000 ; and because 
there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris, 
there must die but one out of 175 ; whereas Mon- 
sieur Auzout thinks that there dies one out of 25, 
and there must live 149 heads in every house of 
Paris mentioned in the register, but there must be 
scarce two heads in every house of England, all 
which we think fit to be reconsidered. 

I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one 
point more, which is, that these assertions do 
reflect upon the empire of England, for that it 
is said that England hath but 2,000,000 in- 
habitants, and it might as well have been added, 
that Scotland and Ireland, with the Islands of 
Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of 
the same number, or 800,000 more, or that all the 
King of England's subjects in Europe are but 
2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that the sub- 
iects of the seven united provinces are 4,000,000» 



ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. 131 

To which we answer that the subjects of the said 
seven provinces are, by this objector's own show- 
ing, but the quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000 souls, 
Paris containing but 488,000, as afore hath been 
proved, and we do here affirm that England liath 
7,000,000 people, and that Scotland, Ireland, 
with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, 
hath two-fifths of the said number, or 2,800,000 
more, in all 9,800,000 ; whereas by the objector's 
doctrine, if the seven provinces have 1,932,000 
people, the King of England's territories should 
have but seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 
1,351,000, whereas we say 9,800,000, as aforesaid, 
which difFerence is so gross as that it deserxes to 
be thus reflected upon. 

To conclude, we expect from the concerned 
critics of the world that they would prove — 

1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the 
twenty-eight towns and cities thereof, hath more 
people than London alone. 

2. That any three of the best cities of France, 
any two of all Christendom, or any one of the 
world, hatli the same, or better housing, and more 
foreign trade than London, even in the year thafc 
King James the Second came to the empire 
thereof. 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

Founded iijjon the Calculations 

of Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, 

and forming part of 

*• An Essay upon the Proballe Methods 

of making a People gamers 

in the Balance of Trade''' 

Published in 1699. 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

The writer of these papers has seen the natural 
and political observations and conclusions upon the 
state and condition of England by Gregorj Kin^ 
Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript. The cak 
culations therein contained are very accurate, andl 
more perhaps to be relied upon than anything that . 
has been ever done of the like kind. This skilful 
and laborious gentleman has taken the right course 
to form his several schemes about the numbers of 
the people, for besides many different ways of 
working, he has very carefully inspected the poll- 
books, and the distinctions made by those acts, 
and the produce in many of the respective polls, 
going everywhere by reasonable and discreet me- 
diums : besides which pains, he has made observa- 
tions of the very facts in particular towns and places, 
from which he has been able to judge and conclude 
more safely of others, so that he seems to have 
looked further into this mystery than any oth^ 
person. 

With his permission, we shall offer to the publis 



136 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

such of his computations as may be of use, and en- 
lighten in the matter before lis. 

He lays down that if the first peopling of 
England was by a colony or colonies, consisting 
of a number between 100 and 1,000 people 
(which seems probable), such colony or colonies 
might be brought over between the year of the 
world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or 900 
years after the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years 
before the birth of Christ, at which time the 
world might have about 1,000,000 families, and 
4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people. 

Erom which hypothesis it will follow by an 
orderly series of increase — 

That when the Romans invaded England fifty- 
three years before Christ's time, the kingdom 
might have about 360,000 people, and at Christ's 
birth about 400,000. 

That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the 
kingdom might contain somewhat above 2,000,000. 

That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the 
Norman Conquest, it might contain about 2,750,000 
people, or half the present number : so that the 
people of England may have doubled in about 435 
years last past. 

That in all probability the next doubling will be 



OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 



137 



in about 600 years to come, viz., by the year 2300, 
at which time it may have about 11,000,000 people, 
and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of 
acres, there will be then about three acres and 
a half per head. 

That the increase of the kingdom for every 
hundred years of the last preceding term of 
doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, 
may have been and in all probability may be, ac- 
cording to the following scheme : — 



Anno 


Number of 


Increase every 


Domini. 


people. 


liundi-ed years. 


1300 


2,860,000 








440,000 


1400 


3,300,000 








540,000. 


1500 


3,840,000 








780,000. 


1600 


4,620,000 









880,000. 


1700 


5,500,000 








920,000. 


1800 


6,420,000 








930,000. 


1900 


7,350,000 








930,000 


2000 


8,280,000 








925,000 


2100 


9,205,000 








910,000. 


2200 


10,115,000 


885,000. 


2300 


11,000,000 





138 



OP THE PEOPLE OP ElTOLUfD. 



Whereby it may appear that the increase of the 
kingdom being 880,000 people in the last hundred 
years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding hundred 
years, the annual increase at this time may be 
about 9,000 souls per annum. 



But whereas the yearly births of the king- 
dom are about 1 in 28 -95, or 
And the yearly burials 1 in 32-35 or . . . 

"VNTiereby the yearly increase would be . . 
It is to be noted — Per ann, 

1. That the allowance for plagues "i 

and great mortalities may come I 4,000 
to at a medium j 

2. Foreign or civil wars at a me- "1 „ k^« 
dium J ^ 

3. The sea constantly employing i 
about 40,000, may precipitate the I 2,500 
death of about J 

4. The^ plantations (over and above i 

the accession of foreigners) may 1 1,000 
carry away J 

Whereby the net annual increase may be 1 
but J 



1 190,000 souls; 
170,000 souls. 
20,000 SOU; 



11,000 per 
annum. 



9,000 souls. 



That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the 
annual increase of the kingdom by procreation, 
were it not for the before-mentioned abatements. 



The country increases annually by pro- 
creation 

The cities and towns, exclusive of Londcn, 
by procreation 



I 20,000 souls. 



2,000 souls 



OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 139 

But London and the bills of mortality de- 1 ^ „„^ 

,, "^ \ 2,000 souls, 

crease annually J ' 

So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls 
per annum to keep it from decreasing, besides a 
further supply of about 3,000 per annum for its 
increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a 
half of the kingdom's net increase. 

Mr. King further observes that by the assessments 
on marriages, births, and burials, and the collectors' 
returns thereupon, and by the parish registers, it 
appears that the proportions of marriages, births, 
and burials are according to the following scheme : 

Vide Scheme A. 

Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 co- 
existing persons there are 71 or 72 marriages in 
the country, producing 343 children ; 78 marriages 
in towns producing 351 children ; 94 marriages in 
London, producing 376 children. 

Whereby it follows — 

1. That though each marriage in London pro- 
duces fewer people than in the country, yet London 
in general having a greater proportion of breeders, 
is more prolific than the other great towns, and the 
great towns are more prolific than the country. 

2. That if the people of London of all ages were 



140 



OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 







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OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 141 

as long-lived as those in the country, London would 
increase in people much faster pro rata than the 
country. 

3. That the reasons why each marriage in London 
produces fewer children than the country marriages 
seem to be — 

(1) From the more frequent fornications and 
adulteries. 

(2) Prom a greater luxury and intemperance. 

(3) From a greater intentness on business. 

(4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke. 

(5) From a greater inequality of age between 
the husbands and wives. 

(6) From the husbands and wives not living so 
long as in the country. 

He further observes, accounting the people to 
be 5,500,000, that the said five millions and a half 
(including the transitory people and vagrants) 
appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and 
burials, to bear the following proportions in rela- 
tion to males and females, and other distinctions of 
the people, viz. : — 

Vide Scheme B. 

So that the number of communicants is in all 
3,260,000 souls ; and the number of fighting men 
between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000. 



142 



OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 





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Husbands and wives at above, 34^ per cent. . . 
Widowers at above ij „ . . 
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Children at above 45 „ . , 
Servants at about 10^ „ 
Sojourners and single persons, 4 „ 


1 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 



143 



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OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAITO. 



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OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 145 

That the bachelors are about 28 per cent, of the 
whole, whereof those under twenty-five years are 
25 J per cent., and those above twenty-five years 
are 2 J per cent. 

That the maidens are about 28J per cent, of the 
whole. 

Whereof those under 25 years are 26^ per 
cent. 

And those above 2d years are 2 per cent. 

That the males and females in the kingdom in 
general are aged, one with another, 27 years and a 
half. 

That in the kingdom in general there is near 
as many people living under 20 years of age as 
there is above 20, whereof half of the males are • 
under 19, and one half of the females are under 
21 years. 

That the ages of the people, according to their 
several distinctions, are as follows, viz. : — 



Vide Scheme 0. 

Having thus stated the numbers of the T)eople, 
he gives a scheme of the income and expense of 
the several families of England, calciilnted for the 
year 1688. 



146 



OF THE PEOPLE OV ENGLAND. 



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OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 147 

Vide Scheme D. 

Mr. King's modesty has been so far overruled 
as to suffer us to communicate these his excellent 
computations, which we can the more safely com- 
mend, having examined them very carefully, tried 
them by some little operations of our own upon 
the same subject, and compared them with the 
schemes of other persons, who take pleasure in the 
like studies. 

What he says concerning the number of the 
people to be 5,500,000 is no positive assertion, 
nor shall we pretend anywhere to determine in 
that matter ; what he lays down is by way of 
hypothesis, that supposing the inhabitants of 
England to have been, A.D. 1300, 2,860,000 
heads, by the orderly series of increase allowed 
of by all writers they may probably be about a.d. 
1700, 5,500,000 heads; but if they were a.d. 
1300 either less or more, the case must propor- 
tionably alter ; for as to his allowances for plagues, 
great mortalities, civil wars, the sea, and the 
plantations, they seem very reasonable, and not 
well to be controverted. 

Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall 
make several remarks, though the text deserves 
much a better comment. 



148 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 



SCHEME D.— A SCHEME OF THE INCOME AND 
ENGLAND, CALCULATED 



Number 

of 
Paonilies. 



Eanks, Degrees, Titles, and 
Qualifications. 



1.60 

26' 

800| 

600: 

3,000 

12,000 

5,000 

o,000| 

2,000i 

8,000 

10,000 

2,000 

8,000 

40,000 

120,000 

150,000 

15,000 

50,000 

€0,000 

5,000 

4,000 



Heads 

per 
Family. 



Temporal Lords 40 

Spiritual Lords 20 

Baronets j 16 

Knights I 13 

Esquires ! 10 

Gentlemen 8 

Persons in greater offices and places . . 8 

Persons in lesser offices and places . . 6 

Eminent merchants and traders by sea . 8 

Lesser merchants and traders by sea . . 6 

Persons in the law 7 

Eminent clergymen j 6 

Lesser clergymen j 6 



Freeholders of the better sort 
Freeholders of the lesser sort . . 

Farmers 

Persons in liberal arts and sciences 
Shopkeepers and tradesmen . . . 
Artisans and handicrafts . . . . 

Naval officers 

Military officers 



7 

5 
5 

4 
4 
4 



600,586 



Common seamen 

Labouring people and out-servants 

400,000 Cottagers and paupers 

35,000 Common soldiers 



60,000 
364,000 



3 
34 



849,000 



Vagrants, as gipsies, thieves, beggars, &c. 



H 



600,586 
849,000 



Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 
Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 



H 



1,349,586 



Net totals 



4i^ 



OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 



149 



EXPENSE OF THE SEVERAL FMIILIES OF 
FOR THE YEAR 1688. 



Number 


Yeai-ly- 
In coir" 


Yearly pB^ 


Yearly 


Yearly 


Yearly In- 


of 




1^ 


Income in 5 f 


tH 


Expense 


Increase 


crease in 


Persons. 


per 
Family. 


general. '^ -^ 


i. 


pr.Head. 


pr.Head. 


general. 




£ 


s. 


£ £ 


s. 


£ 


s. d. 


£ 


s. d. 


£ 


6,400 


3,200 





512,000 80 





70 





10 





64,000 


520 


1,300 





33,800 65 





45 


20 





10,400 


12,800 


880 





704,000 55 





49 





6 





76,800 


7,800 


650 





390,000 50 





45 





5 





39,000 


30,000 


450 





1,200,000 45 





41 





4 





120,000 


96,000 


280 





2,880,000 


35 





32 





3 





288,000 


40,000 


240 





1,200,000 


30 





26 





4 





160,000 


30,000 


120 





600,000 


20 





17 





3 





90,000 


16,000 


400 





800,000 


50 





37 





13 





208,000 


' 48,000 


198 





1,600,000 


33 





27 





6 





288,000 


70,000 


154 





1,540,0(10 22 


18 





4 





280,000 


12,000 


72 





144,000 12 


010 





2 





24,000 


40,000 


60 





400,000jl0 





9 


4 





16 


32,000 


280,000 


91 





3,640,00013 





11 


15 


1 


5 


350,000 


660,000 


56 





6,600,00010 





9 


10 





10 


330,000 


760,000 


42 


10 


6,375,000; 8 


10 


8 


5 





6 


187,500 


75,000 


60 





900,00012 





11 





1 





75,000 


225,000 


46 





2,250,000|10 





9 





1 





225,000 


240,000 


38 





2,280,000 9 


10 


9 








10 


120,000 


20,000 


80 





400,00020 


018 





2 





40,000 


16,000 


60 





240,00015 





14 





1 





16,000 


2,675,520 


68 


18|34,48S,800|12 


Ti 


11 


15 4 


1 


2 8 


3,023,700 


















Decrease. 


Decrease. 


150,000 


20 





1,000,000 


7 





7 


10 





10 


75,000 


1,275,000 


15 





5,460,000 


4 


10 


4 


12 





2 


127,500 


1,300,000 


6 


10 


2,000,000 


2 





2 


5 





6 


325,000 


70,000 


14 





490,000 


7 





7 


10 





10 


35,000 


2,795,000 


10 


10 


8,950,000 


T 


~5 


3 


9 


T 


4 


562,500 


30,000 






60,000 


"2 





4 





_2_ 





60,000 


So the ( 


jreneral Accoimt is 
















2,675,520 


68 


18134,488,800 


12 


isjii 


15 4 


1 


2 8 


3,023,700 


2,825,000 


10 


10| 9,010,000 


3 


3,3 


7 6 





4 6 


622,500 


5,500,620 


32 6 


43,491,800 


T 


18 7 


9 3 


T 


8 9 


2,401,200 



150 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAIH). 

The people being the first matter of power and 
wealth, by whose labour and industry a nation 
must be gainers in the balance, their increase or 
decrease must be carefully observed by any govern- 
meut that designs to thrive ', that is, their increase 
must be promoted by good conduct and wholesome 
laws, and if they have been decreased by war, or 
any other accident, the breach is to be made up 
as soon as possible, for it is a maim in the body 
politic aflfecting all its parts. 

Almost all countries in the world have been 
more or less populous, as liberty and property 
have been there well or ill secured. The first 
constitution of Rome was no ill-founded govern- 
ment, a kingly power limited by laws; and the 
people increased so fast, that, from a small begin- 
ning, in the reign of their sixth king they were 
able to send out an army of 80,000 men. And in 
the time of the commonwealth, in that invasion 
which the Gauls made upon Italy, not long before 
Hannibal came thither, they were grown so 
numerous, as that their troops consisted of 700,000 
foot and 70,000 horse; it is true their allies were 
comprehended in this number, but the ordinary 
people fit to bear arms being mustered in Rome 



OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 151 

and Campania, amounted to 250,000 foot and 
23,000 horse. 

Nothing, therefore, can more contribute to the 
rendering England populous and strong than to 
have liberty upon a right footing, and our legal con- 
stitution firmly preserved. A. nation may be as 
well called free under a limited kingship as in a 
commonwealth, and it is to this good form of our 
government that we partly owe that doubling 
of the people which has probably happened here 
in the 435 years last past. And if the ambition 
of some, and the mercenary temper of others, 
should bring us at any time to alter our constitu- 
tion, and to give up our ancient rights, we shall 
find our numbers diminish visibly and fast. For 
liberty encourages procreation, and not only keeps. 
our own inhabitants among us, but invites 
strangers to come and live under the shelter of our 
lawA. 

The Romans, indeed, made use of an adventitious 
help to enlarge their city, which was by incor- 
porating foreign cities and nations into their 
commonwealth ; but this way is not without its 
mischiefs. For the strangers in Kome by degrees 
had grown so numerous, and to have so great ^^ 
vote in the councils, that the whole Government 



152 OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

began to totter, and decline from its old to its 
new inhabitants, which Cabins the censor observ- 
ing, he applied a remedy in time by reducing 
all the new citizens into four tribes, that being 
contracted into so narrow a space, they might 
not have so malignant an influence upon the 
city. 

An Act of general naturalisation would likewise 
probably increase our numbers very fast, and 
repair what loss we may have suffered in our 
people by the late war. It is a matter that has 
been very warmly contended for by many good 
patriots ; but peradventure it carries also its 
danger with it, which perhaps would have the less 
influence by this expedient, namely, if an Act of 
Parliament were made, that no heads of families 
hereafter to be naturalised for the first generation, 
should have votes in any of our elections. But as 
the case stands, it seems against the nature of 
right government that strangers (who may be 
spies, and who may have an interest opposite to 
that of England; and who at best ever join in one 
link of obsequiousness to the Ministers) should 
be suff'ered to intermeddle in that important 
business of sending members to Parliament. From 
their sons indeed there is less to fear, who hy 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 153 

birth and nature may come to have the sara« 
interest and inclinations as the natives. 

And though the expedient of Fabius Maximus, 
to contract the strangers into four tribes, might be 
reasonable where the affairs of a whole empire 
were transacted by magistrates chosen in one city, 
yet the same policy may not hold good in England ; 
foreigners cannot influence elections here by being 
dispersed about in the several counties of the 
kingdom, where they can never come to have any 
considerable strength. But some time or other 
they may endanger the government by being 
suffered to remain, such vast numbers of them 
here in London where they inhabit altogether, 
at least 30,000 persons in two quarters of the 
town, without intermarrying with the English, or 
learning our language, by which means for several 
years to come they are in a way still to continue 
foreigners, and perhaps may have a foreign interest 
and foreign inclinations ; to permit this cannot be 
advisable or safe. It may therefore be proper to 
limit any new Acts of naturalisation with such 
restrictions as may make the accession of strangers 
not dangerous to the public. 

An accession of strangers, well regulated, may 
add to our strength and numbers; but then it 



154 OJ THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

must be composed of labouring men, artificers, 
merchants, and other rich men, and not of foreign 
soldiers, since such fright and drive away from a 
nation more people than their troops can well 
consist of : for if it has been ever seen that men 
abound most where there is most freedom ' (China 
excepted, whose climate excels all others, and 
where the exercise of the tyranny is mild and 
easy) it must follow that people will in time 
desert those countries whose best flower is their 
liberties, if those liberties are thought precarious 
or in danger. That foreign soldiers are dangerous 
to liberty, we may produce examples from all 
countries and all ages; but we shall instance 
only one, because it is eminent above all the rest. 

The Carthaginians, in their wars, did very much 
use mercenary and foreign troops ; and when 
the peace was made between them and the 
Romans, after a long dispute for the dominion 
of Sicily, they brought their army home to be 
paid and disbanded, which Gesco, their General, 
had the charge of embarking, who did order all 
his part with great dexterity and wisdom. But 
the State of Carthage wanting money to clear 
arrears, and satisfy the troops, was forced to keep 
them up longer than was designed. The army 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 155 

consisted of Gauls, Ligurrans, Baleareans, and 
Greeks. At first they were insolent in . their 
quarters in Carthage, and were prevailed upon to 
remove to Sicca, where they were to remain and 
expect thqir pay. Ther<i they grew presently 
corrupted with ease and jJeasure, and fell into 
mutinies and disorder, and to making extravagant 
demands of pay and gratuities ; and in a rage, 
with their arms in their hando, they marched 
20,000 of them towards Carthage, encamping 
within fifteen miles of the city ; and chose 
Spendius and ]\Jatho, two proJligate wretches, 
for their leaders, and imprisoned Gesco, who was 
deputed to them from the commonwealth. After- 
wards they caused almost all the Africans, their 
tributaries, to revolt ; they grew in a short time 
to be 70,000 strong ; they fought several battles 
with Hanno and Kamilcar Barcas. During these 
transactions, the mercenaries that were in garrison 
in Sardinia mutinied likewise, murdering their 
commander and all the Carthaginians ; while 
Spendius and Matho, to render their accomplices 
more desperate, put Gesco to a cruel death, pre- 
suming afterwards to lay siege to Carthage itself. 
They met with a shock indeed at Prion, where 
40,000 of them were slaughtered ; but soon after 



156 OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAlfD. 

this battle, in another they took one of the 
Carthaginian generals prisoner, whom they fixed 
to a cross, crucifying thirty of the principal 
senators round about him. Spendius and Matho 
were at last taken, the one crucified and the other 
tormented to death : but the war lasted three 
years and near four months with excessive cruelty ; 
in which the State of Carthage lost several battles, 
and was often brought within a hair's-breadth of 
utter .ruin. 

Tf so great a commonwealth as Carthage, though 
assisted at that time by Hiero, King of Syracuse, 
and by the Romans, ran the hazard of losing their 
empire, city, and liberties, by the insurrection of a 
handful of mercenaries, whose first strength was 
but 20,000 men ; it should be a warning to all 
free nations how they suffer armies so composed 
to be among them, and it should frighten a wise 
State from desiring such an increase of people as 
may be had by the bringing over foreign soldiers. 

Indeed, all armies whatsoever, if they are over 
large, tend to the dispeopling of a country, of which 
our neighbour nation is a sufficient proof, where 
in one of the best climates in Europe men are 
wanting to till the ground. For children do not 
proceed from the intemperate pleasures taken 



OP TfiE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 157 

loosely and at random, but from a re^rilar way 
of living, where the father of the family desires 
to rear up and provide for the offspring he shall 
beget. 

Securing the liberties of a nation may be laid 
down as a fundamental for increasing tlie numbers 
of its people ; but there are other polities there- 
unto conducing which no wise State has ever 
neglected. 

No race of men did multiply so fast as the Jews, 
which may be attributed chiefly to the wisdom of 
Moses their Lawgiver, in contriving to |)romote 
the state of marriage. 

The Romans had the same care, paying no 
respect to a man childless by his own f^iult, .and 
giving great immunities and privileges, both in 
the city and provinces, to those who liad such 
and such a number of children. Eiic-oui-agemeiits 
of the like kind are also given in France to such 
as enrich the commonwealth by a large issue. 

But we in England have taken another course, 
laying a fine upon the marriage bed, which seems 
small to those who only contemplate the pomp and 
wealth round about them, and in their view; but 
they who look into all the different ranks of men 
are well satisfied that this duty on marriages and 



158 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

births is a very grievous burden upon the poorer 
sort, whose numbers compose the strength and 
wealth of any nation. This tax was introduced 
by the necessity of affairs. It is difficult to say 
what may be the event of a new thing ; but if we 
are to take measures from past wisdom, which 
exempted prolific families from public duties, we 
should not lay impositions upon those who find 
it hard enough to maintain themselves. If this 
tax be such a weight upon the poor as to dis- 
courage marriage and hinder propagation, which 
seems the truth, no doubt it ought to be abolished ; 
and at a convenient time we ought to change it for 
some other duty, if there were only this single 
reason, that it is so directly opposite to the polity 
of all ages and all countries. 

In order to have hands to carry on labour and 
manufactures, which must make us gainers in the 
balance of trade, we ought not to deter, but rather 
invite men to marry, which is to be done by 
privileges and exemptions for such a number of 
children, and by denying certain offices of trust 
and dignities to all unmarried persons ; and where 
it is once made a fashion among those of the 
better sort, it will quickly obtain with the lower 
degree. 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 159 

Mr. King, in his scheme (for which he has as 
authentic grounds as perhaps the matter is capable 
of) lays down that the annual marriages of Eng- 
land are about 41,000, which is one marriage out 
of every 134 persons. Upon which, we observe, 
that this is not a due proportion, considering how 
few of our adult males (in comparison with other 
countries) perish by war or any other accident ; 
from whence may be inferred that our polity is 
riome way or other defective, or the marriages would 
bear a nearer proportion with the gross number of 
our people ; for which defect, if a remedy can be 
found, there will be so much more strength added 
to the kingdom. 

From the books of assessment on births, mar- 
riages, &c., by the nearest view he can make, he 
divides the 5,500,000 people into 2,700,000 males 
and 2,800,000 females ; from whence (considering 
the females exceed the males in number, and con- 
sidering that the men marry later than women, 
and that many of the males are of necessity absent 
in the wars, at sea, and upon other business) it 
follows that a large proportion of the females re- 
main unmarried, though at an adult age, which is 
a dead loss to the nation, every birth being as so 
much certain treasure, upon which account such 



160 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

laws must be for the public good, as induce all 
men to marry whose circumstances permit it. 

From his division of the people it may be like- 
wise observed, that the near proportion there is 
between the males and females (which is said to 
hold also in other places) is an argument (and the 
strongest that can be produced) against polygamy, 
and the increase of mankind which some think 
might be from thence expected ; for if Nature had 
intended to one man a plurality of wives, she 
would have ordered a great many more female 
births than male, her designments being always 
right and wise. 

The securing the parish for bastard children is 
become so small a punishment and so easily com- 
pounded, that it very much hinders marriage. The 
Dutch compel men of all ranks to marry the woman 
whom they have got with child, and perhaps it 
would tend to the further peopling of England if 
the common people here, under such a certain 
degree, were condemned by some new law to suffer 
the same penalty. 

A country that makes provision to increase in 
inhabitants, whose situation is good, and whose 
people have a genius adapted to trade, will never 
fail to be gainers in the balance, provided the 



OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 161 

labour and industry of their people be well 
managed and carefully directed. 

The more any man contemplates these matters 
the more he will come to be of opinion, that England 
is capable of being rendered one of the strongest 
nations, and the richest spot of ground in' Europe. 

It is not extent of territory that makes a country 
powerful, but numbers of men well employed, con- 
venient ports, a good navy, and a soil producing 
all sort of commodities. The materials for all 
this we have, and so improvable, that if we did but 
second the gifts of Nature with our own industry 
we should soon arrive to a pitch of greatness that 
would put us at least upon an equal footing with any 
of our neighbours. 

If we had the complement of men our land can 
maintain and nourish ; if we had as much trade as 
our stock and knowledge in sea affairs is capable 
of embracing ; if we had such a naval strength as 
a trade so extended would easily produce ; and, if 
we had those stores and that wealth which is the 
certain result 'of a large and well-governed tralfic, 
what human strength could hurt or invade us l On 
the contrary, should we not be in a posture not 
only to resist but to give the law to others 1 

Our neiglibouring commonwealth has not in 



16*2 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

territory above 8,000,000 acres, and perhaps not 
much above 2,200,000 people, and yet what a 
figure have they made in Europe for these last 
100 years? What wars have they maintained 1 
What forces have they resisted ] and to what a 
height of power are they now come, and all by 
good order and wise government 1 

They are liable to frequent invasions ; they 
labour under the inconvenience and danger of 
bad ports ; they consume immense sums every 
year to defend their land agains^t the sea ; all 
whicli dithculties they have subdued by an un- 
wearied industry. 

We are fenced by nature against foreign enemies, 
our ports are safe, we fear no irruptions of the sea, 
our land territory at home is at least 39.000,000 
acres. We have in all likelihood not less than 
5,500,000 people. What a nation might we then 
become, if all these advantages were thoroughly im- 
proved, and if a right application were made of all 
this strength and of these numbers 1 

They who apprehend the immoderate growth of 
any prince or State may, perhaps, succeed by 
beginning first, and by attempting to pull down 
such a dangerous neighbour, but very often their 
good designs are disappointed. In all appearance 



OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 163 

they proceed more safely, who, under such a fear, 
make themselves strong and powerful at home. 
And this was the course which Philip, King of 
Macedon, the father of Perseus, took, when he 
thought to be invaded by the Romans. 

The greatness of Rome gave Carthage very 
anxious thoughts, and it rather seems that they 
entered into the second Punic War more for fear 
the Romans should have the universal empire, 
than out of any ambition to lord it themselves 
over the whole world. Their design was virtuous, 
and peradventure wise to endeavour at some early 
interruption to a rival that grew so fast. How- 
ever, we see they miscarried, though their armies 
were led by Hannibal. But fortune which had 
determined the dominion of the earth for Rome, 
did, perhaps, lead them into the fatal counsel of 
passing the Eber contrary to the articles of peace 
concluded with Asdrubal, and of attacking SagUB- 
tum before they had sufficiently recovered of the 
wounds they had suffered in the wars about Sicily, 
Sardinia, and with their own rebels. If the high 
courage of Hannibal had not driven the common- 
wealth into a new war while it was yet faint and 
weak, and if they had been suffered to pursue their 
victories in Spain, and to get firm footing in that 



164) OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

rich, warlike, and then populous country, very 
prohably in a few years they might have been a 
more equal match for the Roman people. It is 
true, if the Romans had endeavoured, at the con- 
quest of Spain, and if they had disturbed the 
Carthaginians in that country, the war must 
have been unavoidable, because it was evident 
in that age, and will be apparent in the times 
we live in, that whatever foreign power, already 
grown great, can add to its dominion the possession 
of Spain, will stand fair for universal empire. 

But unless some such cogent reason of state, as 
is here instanced, intervene, in all appearance the 
best way for a nation that apprehends the growing 
power of any neighbour is to fortify itself within ; 
we do not mean by land armies, which rather de- 
bilitate than strengthen a country, but by potent 
navies, by thrift in the public treasure, care of the 
people's trade, and all the other honest and useful 
arts of peace. 

By such an improvement of our native strength, 
agreeable to the laws and to the temper of a free 
nation, England without doubt may be brought to 
so good a posture and condition of defending itself, 
as not to apprehend any neighbour jealous of its 
strength or envious of its greatness. 



OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 165 

And to tliis end we open these schemes, that a 
wise Government under which we live, not having 
any designs to become arbitrary, may see what 
materials they have to work upon, and how far 
our native wealth is able to second their good in- 
tentions of preservinig us a rich and a free people. 

Having said something of the number of our 
inhabitants, we shall proceed to discourse of their 
different degrees and ranks, and to examine who 
are a burden and who are a profit to the public, 
for by how much every part and member of the 
commonwealth can be made useful to the whole, 
by so much a nation will be more and more a 
gainer in this balance of trade which we are to 
treat of. 

Mr. King, from the assessments on births and 
marriages, and from the polls, has formed the 
scheme here inserted, of the ranks, degrees, titles 
and qualifications of the people. He has done it so 
judiciously, and upon such grounds, that is well 
worth the careful perusal of any curious person, 
from thenc© we shall make some observations in 
order to put our present matter in a clearer 
light. 

First, this scheme detects their error, who in the 
calculation they frame contemplate nothing but 



166 OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

the wealth and plenty they see in rich cities and 
great towns, and from thence make a judgment of 
the kingdom's remaining part, and from this view 
conclude that taxes and payments to the public do 
mostl}* arise from the gentry and better sort, by 
which measures they neither contrive their imposi- 
tion aright, nor are they able to give a true estimate 
what it shall produce ; but when we have divided 
the inhabitants of England into their proper 
classes, it will appear that the nobility and gentry 
are but a small part of the whole body of the 
people. 

Believiug that taxes fell chiefly upon the better 
sort, they care not what they lay, as thinking they 
will not be felt ; but when they come to be levied, 
they either fall short, and so run the public into 
an immense debt, or they light so heavily upon tlie 
poorer sort, as to occasion insuff'erable clamours ; 
and they, whose proper business it was to contrive 
these matters better have been so unskilful, that 
the legislative power has been more than once com- 
pelled for the peoples' ease to give new funds, in 
stead of others that had been ill projected. 

This may be generally said, that all duties what 
soever upon the consumption of a large produce, fall 
with the greatest weight upon the common sort, 



OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 167 

SO that such as think in new duties that they 
chiefly tax the rich will find themselves quite mis- 
taken ; for either their fund must yield little, or 
it must arise from the whole body of the people, of 
which the richer sort are but a small proportion. 

And though war, and national debts and engage- 
ments, might heretofore very rationally plead for 
excises upon our home consumption, yet now 
there is a peace, it is the concern of every man 
that loves his country to proceed warily in laying 
new ones, and to get off those which are already 
laid as fast as ever he can. High customs and 
high excises both together are incompatible, either 
of them alone are to be endured, but to have them 
co-exist is suffered in no well-governed nation. If 
materials of foreign growth were at an easy rate, a 
high price might be the better borne in things of 
our own product, but to have both dear at once 
(and by reason of the duties laid upon them) is 
ruinous to the inferior rank of men, and this 
ought to weigh more with us, when we consider 
that even of the common people a subdivision is 
to be made, of which one part subsist from their 
own havings, arts, labour, and industry ; and the 
other part subsist a little from their own labour, 
but chiefly from the help and charity of the rank 



16*8 OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

that is above them. For according to Mr. King*8 
scheme — 

The nobility and gentry, with '] 
their families and retainers, 
the persons in offices, mer- 
chants, persons in the law, 
the clergy, freeholders, far- 
mers, persons in sciences Io/stckoav j 
and liberal arts, shopkeepers > 2»675,520 heads. 
and tradesmen, handicrafts, 
men, naval officers, with the 
families and dependants 
upon all these altogether, 
make up the number of — J 

The common seamen, common '^ 

soldiers, labouring people, | 

and out-servants, cottagers, I o oo- aaa -l. j 

T u.\. • £ M- > 2,82u,000 heads, 
paupers, and their families, [ ' ' ^'-a^'^- 

with the vagrants, make up 

the number of — ) 



In all 5,500,520 heads. 

So that here seems a majority of the people, 
whose chief dependence and subsistence is from the 
other part, which majority is much greater, in 
respect of the number of families, because .500,000 
families contribute to the support of 850,000 
families. In contemplation of which, great care 
should be taken not to lay new duties upon the 
home consumption, unless upon the extremest 
necessities of the State ; for though such impositions 
cannot be said to fall directly upon the lower rank, 
whose poverty hinders them from consuming such 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 169 

materials (though there are few excises to which 
the meanest person does not pay sometliing), yet 
indirectly, and by unavoidable consequences, they 
are rather more affected by high duties upon our 
home-consumption than the wealthier degree of, 
people, and so we shall find the case to be, if we 
look carefully into all the distinct ranks of men 
there enumerated. 

* First, as to the nobility and gentry, they must 
of necessity retrench their families and expenses, if 
excessive impositions are laid upon all sorts of 
materials for consumption, from whence follows, 
that the degree below them of merchants, shop- 
keepers, tradesmen, and artisans, must want em- 
ployment. 

Secondly, as to the manufactures, high excises 
in time of peace are utterly destructive to that 
principal part of England's wealth ; for if malt, 
coals, salt, leather, and other things, bear a great 
price, the wages of servants, workmen, and artificers, 
will consequently rise, for the income must bear 
some proportion with the exj^ense ; and if such as 
set the poor to work find wages for labour or 
manufacture advance upon them, they must rise 
in the price of their commodity, or they cannot 
live, all which would signify little, if nothing but 



170 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

our own dealings among one another were thereby 
affected ; but it has a consequence far more per- 
nicious in relation to our foreign trade, for it is 
the exportation of our own product that must 
make England rich ; to be gainers in the balance 
of trade, we must carry out of our own product 
what will purchase the things of foreign growth 
that are needful for our own consumption, with 
some overplus either in bullion or goods to be sold 
in other countries, which overplus is the profit a 
nation makes by trade, and it is more or less 
according to the natural frugality of the people that 
export, or as from the low price of labour and 
manufacture they can afford the commodity cheap, 
and at a rate not to be undersold in foreign 
markets. The Dutch, whose labour and manufac- 
tures are dear by reason of home excises, can not- 
withstanding sell cheap abroad, because this disad- 
vantage they labour under is balanced by the 
parsimonious temper of their people ; but m 
England, where this frugality is hardly to be in- 
troduced, if the duties upon our home consumption 
are so large as to raise considerably the price of 
labour and manufacture, all our commodities 
for exportation must by degrees so advance in the 
prime value, that they cannot be sold at a rate 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. l71 

which will give them vent in foreign markets, 
and we must be everywhere undersold by our wiser 
neighbours. But the consequence of such duties 
in times of peace will fall most heavily upon our 
woollen manufactures, of which most have more 
value from the workmanship than the material ; 
and if the price of this workmanship be enhanced, 
it will in a short course of time put a necessity 
upon those we deal with of setting u]) manufactures 
of their own, such as they can, or of buying goods 
of the like kind and use from nations that can 
afford them cheaper. And in this point we are 
to consider, that the bulk of our woollen exports 
does not consist in draperies made of tlie line wool, 
peculiar to our soil, but is composed of coarse 
broadcloths, such as Yorkshire cloths, kerseys, 
which make a great part of our exj)orts, and may 
be, and are made of a coarser wool, which is to be 
had in other countries. So that we are not singly 
to value ourselves upon the material, but also upon 
the manufacture, which we should make as easy as 
we can, by not laying over-heavy burdens upon the 
manufacturer. And our woollen goods being two- 
thirds of our foreign exports, it ought to be the 
chief object of the public care, if we expect to be 



172 OP THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 

gainers in the balance of trade, which is what we 
hunt after in these inquiries. 

Thirdly, as to the lower rank of all, which we 
compute at 2,825,000 heads, a majority of the 
whole people, their principal subsistence is upon 
the degrees above them, and if those are rendered 
uneasy these must share in the calamity, but even 
of this inferior sort no small proportion contribute 
largely to excises, as labourers and out-servants, 
which likewise affect the common seamen, who must 
thereupon raise their wages or they will not have 
wherewithal to keep their families left at home, 
and the high wages of seamen is another burden 
upon our foreign traffic. As to the cottagers, who 
are about a fifth part of the whole people, some 
duties reach even them, as those upon malt, leather, 
and salt, but not much because of their slender con- 
sumption, but if the gentry, upon whose woods 
and gleanings they live, and who employ them in 
day labour, and if the manufacturers, for whom 
they card and spin, are overburdened with duties, 
they cannot afford to give them so much for their 
labour and handiwork, nor to yield them those 
other reliefs which are their principal subsistence, 
for want of which these miserable wretches must 
perish with cold and hunger. 



OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 173 

Tlius we see excises either directly or inrliroctly 
fall upon the whole body of the people, but we do 
not take notice of these matters as receding from 
our former opinion. On the contrary, we still 
think them the most easy and equal way of taxing 
a nation, and perhaps it is demonstrable that if 
we had fallen into this method at the beuinninff of 
the war of raising the year's expense within the 
year by excises, England had not been now in- 
debted so many millions, but what was advisable 
under such a necessity and danger is not to be pur- 
sued in times of peace, especially in a country 
depending so much upon trade and manufactures. 

Our study now ought to be how those debts may 
be speedily cleared off, for which these new 
revenues are the funds, that trade may again move 
freely as it did heretofore, without such a lieavy 
clog ; but this point we shall more amply handle 
when we come to speak of our payments to the 
public. 

Mr. King divides the whole body of the people 
into two principal classes, viz. : — 

Increasing the wealth of the kingdom... 2,675,520 heads. 
Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom ... 2,825,000 heads. 

By which he means that the first class of tho 



174. OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 

people from land, arts, and industry maintain 
themselves, and add every year something to the 
nation's general stock, and besides this, out of 
their superfluity, contribute every year so much to 
the maintenance of others. 

That of the second class some partly maintain 
themselves by labour (as the heads of the cottage 
families), but that the rest, as most of the wives 
and children of these, sick and impotent people, 
idle beggars and vagrants, are nourished at the 
cost of others, and are a yearly burden to the 
public, consuming annually so much as would be 
otherwise added to the nation's general stock. 

The bodies of men are, without doubt, the most 
valuable treasure of a country, and in their sphere 
the ordinary people are as serviceable to the 
commonwealth as the rich if they are employed 
in honest labour and useful arts, and such being 
more in number do more contribute to increase the 
nation's wealth than the higher rank. 

But a country may be populous and yet poor 
(as were the ancient Gauls and Scythians), so that 
numbers, unless they are well employed, make the 
body politic big but unwieldy, strong but unactive, 
as to any uses of good government. 

Theirs is a wrong opinion who think all mouths 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 175 

profit a country that consume its produce, and it 
may be more truly affirmed, that he who does not 
some way serve the commonwealth, either by 
being employed or by employing others, is not only 
a useless, but a hurtful member to it. 

As it is charity, and what we indeed owe to 
human kind, to make provision for the aged, the 
lame, the sick, blind, and impotent, so it is a 
justice we owe to the commonwealth not to suffer 
such as have health, and who might maintain 
themselves, to be drones and live upon the labour 
of others. 

The bulk of such as are a burden to the public 
consists in the cottagers and paupers, beggars in 
great cities and towns, and vagrants. 

Upon a survey of the hearth books, made in 
Michaelmas, 1685, it was found that of the 
1,300,000 houses in the whole kingdom, those of 
one chimney amounted to 554,631, but some of 
these having land about them, in all our calcula- 
tions, we have computed the cottagers but at 
500,000 families ; but of these, a large number 
may get their own livelihood, and are no charge 
to the parish, for which reason Mr. King very 
judiciously computes his cottagers and paupers, 
decreasing the wealth of the nation but at 400,000 



176 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

families, in which account he includes the poor- 
houses in cities, towns, and villages, besides which 
he reckons 30,000 vagrants, and all these together 
to make up 1,330,000 heads. 

This is a very great proportion of the people to 
be a burden upon the other part, and is a weight 
upon the land interest, of which the landed gentle- 
men must certainly be very sensible. 

If this vast body of men, instead of being ex- 
pensive, could be rendered beneficial to the com- 
monwealth, it were a work, no doubt, highly to 
be jDromoted by all who love their country. 

It seems evident, to such as have considered these 
matters, and who have observed how they are 
ordered in nations under a good polity, that the 
number of such who through age or impotence 
stand in real need of relief, is but small and might 
be maintained for very little, and that the poor 
rates are swelled to the extravagant degree we 
now see them at by two sorts of people, one of 
which, by reason of our slack administration, is 
suffered to remain in sloth, and the other, through 
a defect in our constitution, continue in wretched 
poverty for want of employment, though willing 
enough to undertake it. 

All this seems capuble of a remedy, the laws 



OP THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 177 

may be armed against voluntary idleness, so as to 
prevent it, and a way may probably be found out 
to set those to work who are desirous to support 
themselves by their own labour ; and if this could be 
brought about, it would not only put a stop to the 
course of that vice which is the consequence of aii 
idle life, but it would greatly tend to enrich the 
commonwealth, for if the industry of not half the 
people maintain in some degree the other part, and,, 
besides, in times of peace did add every year near 
two million and a half to the general stock of 
England, to what pitch of wealth and greatness 
might we not be brought, if one limb were not 
suffered to draw away the nourishment of the 
other, and if all the members of the body politic 
were rendered useful to it ? 

Nature, in her contrivances, has made every 
part of a living creature either for ornament or 
use; the same should be in a politic institution 
rightly governed. 

It may be laid down for an undeniable truth, 
that where all work nobody will want, and to 
promote this would be a greater charity and more 
meritorious than to build hospitals, which very 
often are but so many monuments of ill-gotten- 
riches attended with late repentance. 



178 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND.. 

To n?ake as many as possible of these 1,330,000 
persons (whereof not above 330,000 are children 
too young to work) who now live chiefly upon 
others got themselves a large share of their main- 
tenance would be the opening a new vein of 
treasure of some millions sterling per annum ; it 
would be a present ease to every particular man of 
substance, and a lasting benefit to the whole body 
of the kingdom, for it would not only nourish but 
increase the numbers of the people, of which 
many thousands perish every year by those diseases 
contracted under a slothful poverty. 

Our laws relating to the poor are very numerous, 
and this matter has employed the care of every age 
for a lono^ time, thouofh but with little success, 
partly through the ill execution, and partly through 
some defect in the very laws. 

The corruptions of mankind are grown so great 
that, now-a-days, laws are not much observed 
which do not in a manner execute themselves ; ot 
this nature are those laws which relate to bringing 
in the Prince's revenue, which never fail to be put 
in execution, because the people must pay, and the 
Prince will be paid ; but where only one part of 
the constitution, the people, are immediately con- 
cerned, as in laws relating to the poor, the high* 



OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 179 

ways, assizes, and other civil economy, and good 
order in the state, those are but slenderly regarded. 

The public good being therefore, very often, not 
a motive strong enough to engage the magistrate to 
perform his duty, lawgivers have many times 
fortified their laws with penalties, wherein private 
persons may have a profit, thereby to stir up tho 
people to put the laws in execution. 

In countries depraved nothing proceeds well 
wherein particular men do not one way or other 
find their account; and rather than a public o-ood 
should not go on at all, without doubt, it is better 
to give private men some interest to set it forward. 

For which reason it may be worth the considera- 
tion of such as study the prosperity and welfare of 
England, whether this great engine of maintaining 
the poor, and finding them work and employment, 
may not be put in motion by giving some body of 
undertakers a reasonable gain to put the machine 
upon its wheels. 

In order to which, we shall here insert a pro- 
posal delivered to the House of Commons last 
session of Parliament, for the better maintaininff- 
the impotent, and employing and setting to work 
the otiier poor of this kingdom. 

In matters of this nature, it is always good to 



ISO OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

iiure some model or plan laid down, which thinking 
men may contemplate, alter, and correct, as they 
see occasion; and the writer of these papers does 
rather choose to offer this scheme, because he is 
satisfied it was composed by a gentleman of great 
abilities, and who has made both the poor rates, 
and their number, more his study than any other 
person in the nation. The proposal is as follows : — 

A Scheme for Setting the Poor to Work. 

First, that such persons as shall subscribe and 
pay the sum of X300,000 as a stock for and towards 
the better maintaining the impotent poor, and for 
buying commodities and materials to employ and 
set at work the other poor, be incorporated and 
made one body politic, &c. By the name of the 
Governor and Company for Maintaining and Em- 
ploying the Poor of this Kingdom. 

By all former propositions, it was intended that 
the parishes should advance several years' rates to 
raise a stock, but by this proposal the experiment 
is to be made by private persons at their risk ; and 
£300,000 may be judged a very good stock, which, 
added to the poor rates for a certain number of 
years, will be a very good fund for buying com- 
modities and materials for a million of money at 



OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 181 

any time. This subscription ought to be free for 
everybody, and if the sum were subscribed in the 
several counties of England and Wales, in propor- 
tion to their poor rates, or the monthly assessment, 
it would be most convenient ; and provision may 
be made that no person shall transfer his interest 
but to one of the same county, which will keep the 
interest there during the term ; and as to its being 
one Corporation, it is presumed this will be most 
beneficial to the public. For first, all disputes on 
removes, which are very chargeable and burthen- 
some, will be at an eixl — this proposal intending, 
that wherever the poor are, they shall be maintained 
or employed. Secondly, it will prevent one county 
which shall be diligent, imposing on ilieir neigh- 
bours who may be negligent, or getting away their 
manufactures from tliera. Thirdly, in case of lire, 
plague, or loss of manufacture, the stock of one 
county may not be sufficient to support the places 
where such calamities may happen ; and it is 
necessary the whole body should support every 
particular member, so that hereby there will be a 
general care to administer to every place according 
to their necessities. 

Secondly, that the said Corporation be establislied 
for the term of one-and-twenty years. 



182 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

The Corporation ought to be established for one- 
and-twenty years, or otherwise it cannot have the 
benefit the law gives in case of infants, which is 
their service for their education ; besides, it will be 
some years before a matter of this nature can be 
brought into practice. 

Thirdly, that the said sum of .£300,000 be paid 
in, and laid out for the purposes aforesaid, to remain 
as a stock for and during the said term of one-and- 
twenty years. 

The subscription ought to be taken at the passing 
of the Act, but the Corporation to be left at liberty, 
to begin either the Michaelmas or the Lady Day 
after, as they shall think fit. And per cent, 

to be paid at the subscribing to persons appointed 
for that purpose, and the remainder before they 
beo-in to act ; but so as £300,000 shall be always 
in stock during the term, notwithstanding any 
dividends or other disposition : and an account 
thereof to be exhibited twice in every year upon 
oath, before the Lord Chancellor for the time 
being. 

Fourthly, that the said corporation do by them- 
selves, or agents in every parish of England, from 
and after the day of during the 

said term of one-and- twenty years, provide for the 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 183 

real impotent poor good and sufficient maintenance 
and reception, as good or better than hath at any 
time within the space of years before the 

said day of been provided or allowed 

to such impotent poor, and so shall continue to 
provide for such impotent poor, and what other 
growing impotent poor shall happen in the said 
parish during the said term. 

By impotent poor is to be understood all infants 
and old and decrepid persons not able to work ; 
also persons who by sickness or any accident are 
for the time unable to labour for themselves or 
families ; and all persons (not being tit for labour) 
who were usually relieved by the money raised for 
the use of the poor ; they shall have maintenance, 
&c., as good or better, as within years they 

used to have. 

This does not directly determine what that shall 
be, nor is it possible, by reason a shilling in one 
county is as much as two in another ; but it will be 
the interest of the Corporation that such poor be 
well provided for, by reason the contrary v/ill 
occasion all the complaints or clamour that jnijljably 
can be made against the Corporation. 

Fifthly, that the CoT'poration do provide (as well 
for all such poor which on the said day of 



184 OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

shall be on the poor books, as for what 
other growing poor shall happen in the said term 
"who are or shall be able to labour or do any work) 
sufficient labour and work proper for such persons 
to be employed in. And that provision shall be 
made for such labouring persons according to their 
labour, so as such provision doth not exceed three- 
fourth parts as much as any other person would 
have paid for such labour. And in case they are not 
•employed and set to work, then such persons shall, 
until materials or labour be provided for them, be 
maintained as impotent poor ; but so as such 
persons wlio shall hereafter enter themselves on 
the poor's book, being able to labour, shall not quit 
the service of the corporation, without leave, for 
the space of six months. 

The Corporation are to provide materials and 
labour for all that can work, and to make provision 
for them not exceeding three-fourth parts as much 
as any other person would give for such labour. 
For example, if another person would give one of 
these a shilling, the Corporation ouglit to give but 
ninepence. And the reason is plain, first, because 
the Corporation will be obliged to maintain them 
and their families in all exigences, which others aro 
not obliged to do, and consequently they ought not 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 18.5 

to allow SO much as others. Seoonclly, in case any 
peibons able to labour, shall come to the Corpora- 
tion, when their agents are not prepared with 
materials to employ them, by this proposal they 
are to allow them full provision as impotent poor, 
until they find them work, which is entirely in 
favour of the poor. Thirdly, it is neither reason 
able nor possible for the Corporation to provide 
materials upon every occasion, for such persons as 
shall be entered with them, unless they can be 
secure of such persons to work up those materials ; 
besides, without this provision, all the labouring 
people of England will play fast and loose between 
their employers and the Corporation, for as they are 
disobliged by one, they will run to the other, and 
so neither shall be sure of them. 

Sixthly, that no impotent poor shall he removed 
out of the parish where they dwell, but upon notice 
in writing given to the churchwardens or overseers 
of the said parish, to what place of provision he or 
she is removed. 

It is judged the best method to provide for the 
impotent poor in houses prepared for that purpose, 
where proper provision may be made for several, 
with all necessaries of care and maintenance. Sa 
that in some places one house will serve tht- 



186 OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

impotent poor of several parishes, in which case the 
parish ought to know where to resort, to see if good 
provision be made for them. 

Seventhly, that in case provision be not made for 
the poor of each parish, in manner as aforesaid 
(upon due notice given to the agents of the Corpor- 
ation) the said parish may order their poor to be 
jnainlained, and deduct the sum by them expended 
f)ut of the next payments to be made to the said 
corporation by the said parish. 

In case any accident happens in a parish, either 
by sickness, fall, casualty of fire, or other ways ; 
and that the agent of the Corporation is not present 
to provide for them, or having notice doth not im- 
mediately do it, the parish may do it, and deduct 
so much out of the next payment; but there must 
be provision made for the notice, and in what time 
the Corporation shall provide for them. 

Eighthly, that the said Corporation shall have and 
receive for the said one-and-twenty years, that is 
to say, from every parish yearly, so much as such 
parish paid in any one year, to be computed by a 
medium of seven years ; namely, from the 2oth of 
March, 1690, to the 25th of March 1697, and to 
be paid half-yearly ; and besides, shall receive the 
benefit of the revenues of all donations given to 



OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 187 

any parish, or whicli shall be given during the said 
term, and all forfeitures which the law gives to the 
use of the poor ; and to all other sums which were 
usually collected by the parish, for the maintenance 
of the poor. 

Whatever was raised for or applied to the use of 
the poor, ought to be paid over to the Corporation ; 
and where there are any donations for maintaining 
the poor, it will answer the design of the donor, by 
reason there will be better provision for the main- 
tenance of the poor than ever ; and if that main- 
tenance be so good, as to induce further charities, 
no doubt the Corporation ought to be entitled to 
them. But there are two objections to this article ; 
first that to make a medium by a time of war is 
unreasonable. Secondly, to continue the whole tax 
for one-and-twenty years, does not seem to give 
any benefit to the kingdom in that time. To the 
first, it is true, we have a peace, but trade is lower 
now than at any time during the war, and the 
charge of the poor greater ; and when trade will 
mend is very uncertain. To the second, it is very 
plain, that although the charge may be the same to 
a parish in the total, yet it will be less to particular 
persons, because those who before received alms, 
will now be enabled to be contributors ; but besideS| 



183 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

the turning so many hundred thousand pounds a 
year (which in a manner have hitherto been applied 
only to support idleness) into industry ; and the 
employing so many other idle vagrants and sturdy 
beggars, with the product of their labour, will al- 
together be a present benefit to the lands of 
England, as well in the rents as in the value ; and 
further the accidental charities in the streets and 
at doors, is, by a very modest computation, over 
and above the poor rates, at least £300,000 per 
annum, which will be entirely saved by this pro- 
posal, and the persons set at work ; which is a 
further consideration for its being well received, 
since the Corporation are not allowed anything for 
this service. 

The greater the encouragement is, the better the 
work will be performed ; and it will become the 
wisdom of the parliament in what they do, to make 
it effectual ; for should such an undertaking as this 
prove ineffectual, instead of remedying, it will in- 
crease the mischief. 

Ninthly, that all the laws made for the provision 
of the poor, and for punishing idle vagrant persons, 
be repealed, and one law made to continue such 
parts as are found useful, and to add such othet 



OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 185> 

restrictions, penalties, and provisions, asmayeff-ct t. 
ally attain the end of tins great work. 

The laws hereunto relating are numerous, but 
the judgment and opinions given upon them are 
so various and contradictory, and differ so in 
sundry places, as to be inconsistent with any one 
general scheme of management. 

Tenthly, that proper persons be appointed in 
every county to determine all matters and differ- 
ences which may arise between the corporation 
and the respective parishes. 

To prevent any ill usage, neglect or cruelty, it 
will be necessary to make provision that the poor 
may tender their complaints to officers of the 
parish ; and that those officers having examined 
the same, and not finding redress, may apply to 
persons to be appointed in each county and each 
city for that purpose, who may be called super- 
visors of the poor, and may have allowance made 
them for their trouble ; and their business may be 
to examine the truth of such complaints j and in 
case either the parish or corporation judge them- 
selves aggrieved by the determination of the said 
supervisors, provision may be made that an appeal 
lie to the quarter sessions. 

Eleventhly, that the corporation be obliged to 



190 OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

provide for all public beggars, and to put the \a.w9 
into execution against public beggars and idle 
vagrant persons. 

Such of the public beggars as can work must be 
employed, the rest to be maintained as impotent 
poor, but the laws to be severely put in execution 
against those who shall ask any public alms. 

This proposal, which in most parts of it seems to 
be very maturely weighed, may be a foundation for 
those to build upon who have a public spirit large 
enough to embrace such a noble undertaking. 

But the common obstruction to anything of this 
nature is a malignant temper in some who will not 
let a public work go on if private persons are to 
be gainers by it. When they are to get them- 
selves, they abandon all sense of virtue ; but are 
clothed in her whitest- robe when they smell 
profit coming to another, masking themselves with 
a false zeal to the commonwealth, where their own 
turn is not to be served. It were better, indeed, 
that men would serve their country for the pi-aise 
and honour that follow good actions, but this is 
not to be expected in a nation at least leaning 
towards corruption, and in such an age it is as 
much as we can hope for if the prospect of some 
honest gain inviie-' people to do the public faithfu] 



OF THE PEOPLE OP ENGLAND. 19} 

service. For which reason, in any undertaking 
where it can be made apparent that a great benelit 
will accrue to the commonwealth in general, we 
ought not to have an evil eye upon what fair 
advantages particular men may thereby expect to 
reap, still taking care to keep their appetite of 
getting within moderate bounds, laying all just 
and reasonable restraints upon it, and making due 
provision that they may not wrong or oppress 
their fellow subjects. 

It is not to be denied, but that if fewer hands 
were suffered to remain idle, and if tlie poor had 
full employment, it would greatly tend to the 
common welfare, and contribute much towards 
adding every year to the general stock of England. 

Among the methods that we have here proposed 
of employing the poor, and making the whole body 
of the people useful to the public, we think it 
our duty to mind those who consider the common 
welfare of looking with a compassionate eye into 
the prisons of this kingdom, where manj'- thousands 
consume their time in vice and idleness, wasting 
the remainder of their fortunes, or lavishing the 
substance of their creditors, eating bread and doing 
no work, which is contrary to good order, and pei> 
nicious to the commonwealth. 



192 OP THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. 

We cannot therefore but recommend the 
thoughts of acme good bill that may effectually 
put an end to this mischief so scandalous in a 
trading <x)untry, which should let no hands remain 
useless. 

It is not at all difficult to contrive such a bill as 
may relieve and release the debtor, and yet pre- 
serve to his creditors all their fair, just, and honest 
rights and interest. 

And so we have in this matter endeavoured to 
show that to preserve and increase the people, and 
to make their numbers useful, are methods con- 
d'lcing to make us gainers in the balance of trade. 



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